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Spain Supercopa 2009/10. Semifinals Predictions.

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ACB League SuperCopa 2009/2010. Gran Canaria - Regal Barcelona

Gran Canaria seems to be a good team again this season. I thought that they should be in a trouble after releasing C.English to Caja Laboral but his replacement Carroll looking even better than Carl English. McDonald adds penetration power for this team and after 6 preseason games Canaria looks good. However they have never met a team of Barcelona calibre.

Barca team is like a dream for any basketball coach with so many talents on the roster. But right now they are not yet at their best conditions because many key players are playing after Eurobasket campaign and that is why Barca starting five is full of bench players (Sada, Ndong and Basile). Key players like Navarro, Rubio, Lorbek are getting less minutes than they should get, while Lakovic is resting after Eurobasket marathon.

Gran Canaria playing at home and this a boost for this well-built team with new coach. At home they always compete well with Barcelona and I expect another good game from them tonight in front of own supporters. Barca for sure have better and more balanced roster but they still need sometime to find chemistry and get into form to start trashing opponents. Actually we have -8.5 line for Barca in away game and I really don't think that we have an edge over the line on Barcelona side. Personally I think that -6.5 is more fair line for this match and public line movement can bring us a good bet on Gran Canaria +9.5 if odds will continue to drop.

Real Madrid - Caja Laboral

Real should dominate in this semifinal over injury-plagued Caja Laboral. For Caja Eliahu, Hermann, Oleson and Huertas are missing and I have big doubts that English, Teletovic and Splitter will be able to push Caja's offense against well working Real "made by Messina" defense. Real has a full roster (only Lull is quiestionable) and with so many depth on the bench they should dominate on the court against very limited Caja's rotation. Also don't forget that Real has some revenge factors playing for them here. Last year Tau (now Caja) eliminated them in ACB league semifinal, while Prigioni and Vidal will play with double motivation because of their conflicts with Caja coach (due them they were cut from Caja's roster).

I expect something like 77-83 points for Real and 65-72 for Caja.
Pick: Real to win @ 1.40 BETFAIR or Real (-5.5)

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