Pamesa Valencia - Estudiantes Madrid

For both teams the field of Bilbao is neutral and nobody will have advantage in this aspect so we should take the line as for a game on neutral ground.

Pamesa is better known, more public and more experienced team. And what is more important they were leading at HT in both games against Studens this season with double digits. In each game Estudiantes managed to comeback into the game, but at home they returned in second half destroyed Pamesa with the score 58:36 and won the game, while in Valencia Pamesa won the last quarter by 12 points.

Right now Estudiantes are in brilliant form and I think that they have good chance for suprise. And the only thing I don't like in them is their defense.. they are not very good defensively away from the Madrid but in last games they showed how strong they are in offense especially with Lofton carrying their shooting skills.

Pamesa will have some advantage on the boards and with experience. But Pamesa in my eyes is not a team to trust in such games especially when they are favorites. You never know will Pamesa play from defense or from offense and you never know against whom they will win or lose.

Everything is possible when Pamesa is on the court and if everything is possible why not to try Estudiantes to win? Sure it's a not a confident pick but I think that suprise of the day if it will happen will be in this match.

As for over/under choice I would pick over 151.5 because I like Estudiantes offense these days as well as I don't like their defense. I think that 154.5 is more fair total line for this team.

Picks: Over 151.5, Estudiantes +5.5

Regal Barcelona - Cajasol

I think that there is no sense to tell another few stories like how strong Barcelona is so I will try to tell why Cajasol should lose here.

The main reason is that Cajasol does not look against defensive teams. They often fails to score 65 points against team with good defense and they are currently not looking great in all the parts of the game. I watched Cajasol game against fast paced Unicaja and I did not like how they played in offense in half court game (this what expects them today against Barca). Defensively they still were looking quite solid but now without mistakes.

I will be really difficult to score 65 points for Cajasol against motivated Barcelona. I think that Cajasol should have at least one or 2 quarters where they will score 10-12 points and it should be more than enough to limit they offense in the 55-66 points range. On other side we have Regal Barcelona which can score as much points as they want but Barca is rarely makes more than 80 possessions per game against quite well working defense of Cajasol it should not be easy to score 80+ points.

I expect Barcelona to dictate this game from start to the end and first of all they will limit Cajasol's offensive game around 60 points. I doubt that Barcelona will spend all its power in quarterfinals so most probably they will keep the pace low and score under 80 points. The best choice is to pick Cajasol under 66 points at William Hill or under 144.5 available at most bookies.

Pick: Cajasol under 66 @ 1.85 William Hill or Under 144.5 @ 1.90