Euroleague
Euroleague Week 1 Betting Tips: Wednesday
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Here we are! Official start of Euroleague season will happen tonight. Actually Euroleague is the most popular league on our continent but from season to season lines for this competition become stronger and stronger. I was suprised to see such strong line for Week 1 but maybe this happened because of early market date. Current lines appeared about 2 weeks ago and public polished them very well so in result we have good line with less mistake.But I still have 2 games where we can try some luck. Hope these picks will be better than yesterday.
Maroussi - CSKA
CSKA currently is not at best conditions. Team leaders Siskauskas, Holden, Langdon can't find their shot and form at this stage of the season. Their leading scorer right now is Andrey Vorontsevic is ill and have not traveled to Greece. Planininic is good enough but he is the only guy who can help from the bench (maybe coach should think about inserting hime into starting 5). Viktor Khriapa do a lot of dirty job but offensively is not yet ready too. But CSKA is still the same defensive-minded team and at this moment of the season their only chance to win is to play organized defense to stop opponents under 65 points. They can't be competitve in offensive minded basketball right now (but will be able when team will reach its top form).
Maroussi on other side can play low pace as well as in fast pace. I don't think that they will be able to force CSKA into fast basketball and honestly speaking I am not sure that they want this running basketball... They did very good job on defensive end in their Euroleague qualification games by limiting all opponents to 69-70 points. Marroussi has 9 players rotation and it is their main advantage over CSKA today. If Maroussi will be able to defend well and score in the 65-74 points they have chance to win this game.
I expect very tight game here and would not be suprised if Maroussi will have chance to win it. But also I can't say that Maroussi is worth a favorite status. My line here +4/138.5 and I expect close match with 130-142 points scored in regular time.
Pick: Under 144.5
Zalgiris - ASVEL
Zalgiris has good starting five but has problems with bench performance. Asvel is the same class opponent but I did not expect to see Zalgiris as 7-points favorite here. When one level team playing against each other home factor should be worth 3-4.5 points in the line. And in this game the only real advantage of Zalgiris is their home court and bad away performance of French clubs in Euroleague history.
ASVEL has good defense, good bench, smart coach and motivation because Zalgiris is their direct competitor in this group. Asvel is built for Euroleague and I am not sure that Zalgiris will be able to dominate 40 minutes. It is hard to cover such nandicaps without bench and that is the main reason why I think that Asvel +8 is a good bet for medium-low stakes.
Pick: Asvel +8
Olympiacos - Orleannaise
It will be interesting to see if Olreannaise is capable to compete on the top level against strong , deep and very athletic team from Pireus. In my point of view the best choice here is under 154 because statistically we should expect something like 83-64 but I really don't know what to expect from Olympiacos which can score 85+ at home if they are on fire. Everything is possible here: 76:65, 85:61 or 92:67
Game to watch.
Cibona - Montepaschi
Another tough call for me. There are various scenarios possible in this match. I rarely go against Cibona at home at there is no will to bet on Montepaschi at these odds. As for total I lean to under 152.5 but there is no big value here too because Montepaschi can score 80+ points to any defense.
Fenerbahce Ulker - Barcelona
Looks like easy win for Barca but in Turkey things never be easy. Barcelona at this moment is not good on offensive end so I expect a lot of defense from both teams, unfortunately bookies expect the same and set 143.5 points line.
Prokom - Oldenburg
Prokom save the core of the team from previous season as well as Oldenburg. But at home I expect Prokom to win comfortably taking into consideration poor offensive form of Oldenburg. But bookies also expect a confident win of polish team so again no value in the line.
CSKA currently is not at best conditions. Team leaders Siskauskas, Holden, Langdon can't find their shot and form at this stage of the season. Their leading scorer right now is Andrey Vorontsevic is ill and have not traveled to Greece. Planininic is good enough but he is the only guy who can help from the bench (maybe coach should think about inserting hime into starting 5). Viktor Khriapa do a lot of dirty job but offensively is not yet ready too. But CSKA is still the same defensive-minded team and at this moment of the season their only chance to win is to play organized defense to stop opponents under 65 points. They can't be competitve in offensive minded basketball right now (but will be able when team will reach its top form).
Maroussi on other side can play low pace as well as in fast pace. I don't think that they will be able to force CSKA into fast basketball and honestly speaking I am not sure that they want this running basketball... They did very good job on defensive end in their Euroleague qualification games by limiting all opponents to 69-70 points. Marroussi has 9 players rotation and it is their main advantage over CSKA today. If Maroussi will be able to defend well and score in the 65-74 points they have chance to win this game.
I expect very tight game here and would not be suprised if Maroussi will have chance to win it. But also I can't say that Maroussi is worth a favorite status. My line here +4/138.5 and I expect close match with 130-142 points scored in regular time.
Pick: Under 144.5
Zalgiris - ASVEL
Zalgiris has good starting five but has problems with bench performance. Asvel is the same class opponent but I did not expect to see Zalgiris as 7-points favorite here. When one level team playing against each other home factor should be worth 3-4.5 points in the line. And in this game the only real advantage of Zalgiris is their home court and bad away performance of French clubs in Euroleague history.
ASVEL has good defense, good bench, smart coach and motivation because Zalgiris is their direct competitor in this group. Asvel is built for Euroleague and I am not sure that Zalgiris will be able to dominate 40 minutes. It is hard to cover such nandicaps without bench and that is the main reason why I think that Asvel +8 is a good bet for medium-low stakes.
Pick: Asvel +8
Olympiacos - Orleannaise
It will be interesting to see if Olreannaise is capable to compete on the top level against strong , deep and very athletic team from Pireus. In my point of view the best choice here is under 154 because statistically we should expect something like 83-64 but I really don't know what to expect from Olympiacos which can score 85+ at home if they are on fire. Everything is possible here: 76:65, 85:61 or 92:67
Game to watch.
Cibona - Montepaschi
Another tough call for me. There are various scenarios possible in this match. I rarely go against Cibona at home at there is no will to bet on Montepaschi at these odds. As for total I lean to under 152.5 but there is no big value here too because Montepaschi can score 80+ points to any defense.
Fenerbahce Ulker - Barcelona
Looks like easy win for Barca but in Turkey things never be easy. Barcelona at this moment is not good on offensive end so I expect a lot of defense from both teams, unfortunately bookies expect the same and set 143.5 points line.
Prokom - Oldenburg
Prokom save the core of the team from previous season as well as Oldenburg. But at home I expect Prokom to win comfortably taking into consideration poor offensive form of Oldenburg. But bookies also expect a confident win of polish team so again no value in the line.
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