Regal Barcelona - Olympiacos

The Big and most expected by fans Final of Euroleague 2009/10. These teams are really the best teams of this Euroleague edition and I am happy to seem them in the final game. Looking at bookies odds it looks like a walkover game for spanish club but I can't agree with this.

Olympiacos individually very strong team. Teodosic is not weaker than Rubio. Barca has old Navarro & Mickeal - Oly has Kleiza & Childress (+ Teodosic and few men who can be an X-factor), Olympiacos is very strong on the boards and it should not be easy for Barcelona to control pace of the game and grab rebounds. Oly had a lot of matchup in their favor under baskets but Barca also have them... Olympiacos has more x-factors like Papaloukas, Teodosic shooting abilities, Baby Shaq under the boards, sleeping giant Bourossis and experience of Vujcic & Halperin.. Looking at the rosters and overall matchup I don't see clear favorite here while bookies see (or maybe it is dictated by public?) it with confidence.

The only factor which is talking for Barcelona - their ability to control pace of the game and stay calm whatever happens on the court. They know how to play good game away from home (or on neutral ground) while Oly away often shows signs of weakness there and there. Barcelona also has more experience playing such short tournaments because they have King's Cup and Supercopa in Spain every year and they won both tournaments this year. Olympiacos has 2 playoff games in 3 days only once per season when they are playing in Euroleague Fina Four...

I can't agree with handicap which is set for this game. Barcelona anyway should not be a 7-point favorite against Olympiacos on neutral ground. Maybe at home they are worth 6.5 points but not on neutral ground. But all small things and factors are talking for Barca and that's why I expect them to win Euroleague this season but points difference should not be double digit.

As for the total I see small value in picking over 148.5. Olympiacos is one of the fastest teams in Euroleague and they know how to force opponent to play faster and drive Oly players to FT line (what provides more possessions to both teams). I see this game going over 150 points because Barca might agree to run at some certain moments as well as we should see more fouls from Barca side because Oly has very big and athletic players on the boards.