Regal Barcelona - CSKA Moscow

Best team in Europe this season against best team of Europe in last 7 seasons. Ambitions and class against experience and mentality. Who is going to win this battle? Public heavily supports Regal Barcelona because everyone expects them to take Euroleague crown this year. But let's have short analysis of both team before finding out what is the best pick for this game.

ROSTERS

Point Guards. CSKA has 2+1 formation on this position with Pankrashov being a 3rd option after Planinic and Holden. Barca at this moment has 1+2 formation with Ricky Rubio as a main point guard + Sada and Lakovic helping him. Lakovic and Sada are not playing well these days especially on offensive end however defensively they are looking solid as a whole Barca. A lot here will depend on Ricky ability to make his job under huge pressing from quick Holden and strong Planinic but his speed should help him against Zoran and height against Holden. I can't see advantage on this position for any team.

EDGE: EQUAL

Shooting guards. Navarro and Langdon battle can decide an outcome in this match. Both are in good form according to last games. Both are excellent defenders and both will defend each other. Navarro is no so dominant as before but on other side Barca has Basile to give some rest for Juan Carlos while for CSKA there is only Trajan. I see slight advantage for Barcelona here.

EDGE: Barcelona

Small forwards. Here we gonna have another battle. Pete Mickeal against experienced 2-times Euroleague winner Ramunas Siskauskas. Both are covering SF position solely (I doubt that Barton will play a lot in this game) and both could be an X-factor for their teams. CSKA has Vorontsevic who can play on this position while Barcelona have more experienced Grimau.

EDGE: EQUAL

Power forwards. Here Vasquez and Lorbek has small edge over Khriapa and Smodis who returned to roster but only because of questionable Smodis conditions. If he will be ably to show at least 60% of his potential on offense and lock defense this line is equal too.

EDGE: EQUAL

Centers. Here Barcelona has a big edge because Ndong and Morris are much stronger than Kaun and Mensa Bonsu.

EDGE: Barcelona

FORM

Barcelona played more matches in ACB league and won all of them excluding one away loss where they played with Navarro. CSKA lost 3 games in a row to Dynamo. Khimki and Unics but won last 2 friendlies against Unics. Sure CSKA was not serious in those lost games and they tried to give more time for Smodis and avoid injuries but losses is not the best way to prepare for Final 4 semifinal against such big rival.

EDGE: Barcelona

OFFENSE

Offensively Barcelona is a better team because usualy they find a way to score effectively. CSKA sometimes struggle to score points especially when playing away from and also they don't have support from the bench. However, Barcelona bench is not producing points at this moment of the season too but its potential is much higher.

EDGE: Barcelona

DEFENSE

CSKA defense is not so tough as it was under Messina. CSKA allows the same amount of points than last year but mainly because they always tries to slow down the pace of the game. Barcelona defensively is much more solid and this season they are the best team in Europe.

EDGE: Barcelona

MENTALITY

CSKA has a core of very experienced players who knows how to produce a good game when needed. Barcelona has a winning mentality but will they be able to show their best level playing under pressure? Honestly speaking this is the most intriguing point for me in this game and maybe decisive...

EDGE: CSKA

PACE

Both teams are slow-paced and this game should not be a high paced game. However, expect Barcelona to run a fast breaks at every opportunity because they need to score from transition as much points as they can. CSKA on other side should keep game slow because they are not a transition team. But Barcelona as a team controls pace this season better than CSKA and with some edge on the boards they have to control pace not for the whole game but for some time periods when outcome can be decided.

EDGE: Barcelona

CONCLUSION

Actually we have here 2 almost equal teams but one of them has more quality and better organized game with more options to change if something fails. CSKA key to the victory is too keep game pace slow and score points on offense. While Barcelona should try to fasten the game when it is possible especially after defensive rebounds. For both teams it will be hard to score in long attacks and overall game pace should not be higher than 155 possesions. This is how I see the game from tactical point of view.

Barcelona is more than solid favorite to win this game with 8 points handicap but as for me this line is too public to pick Barca handicap. Sure Barcelona is favorite in this game but they are not at the same level like they were in the beginning of the season. CSKA on other side is also a dark horse for me in this matchup because their core players knows how to play against Barcelona and they don't fear Spanish team.

I expect both teams to score in 60-75 points range and it is not easy to cover 8-points handicap in this 15-points range. As for the total this game smells like a heavy under but a lot will depend of shooting percentage from 3-points line. If shooters will be on fire today than 141.5-142 points can go over up to 150-155 points but if not I doubt that 135 points will be score here.  But in my point of view CSKA should meet problems in scoring points in this game and they will fail to score 68 points while Barcelona will score 70+.

All in all, my prediction here: Barcelona to win this semifinal by overcoming some difficulties in 1st half by 7-12 points.