Caja Laboral - CSKA Moscow

Caja got victory in Game 3 but CSKA played 2 levels above their real level. Game 4 should be a different story and I expect CSKA to dominate on the court. I think that CSKA coach did several mistakes in Game 3 and this time I expect following corrections:

- Kaun will start instead of Sokolov (Pashutin asked to change starting five center before starting whistle but it was too late.. he started and Caja started 8:0)
- Siskauskas to be a factor in offense (he did not touch the ball in 1st half)
- CSKA offense should return too (in Game 3 there were too much not-prepared 3-points)
- Khriapa to show strong performance after bad game

As for Caja.. I can't see what else Ivanovic can change to make difference in this series. Caja offense does not work against CSKA defense and I expect this trend to continue in Game 4. As for Caja's scoring range is 64-74 points and 69.5 total is more fair than 75 we have now. CSKA has 70+ points offense and after addapting to court CSKA should feel more comfortable in offense in Game 4. I really think that statistically CSKA is 3.5-4 points away favorite in Game 4 but the only question if those numbers will work today.

I expect CSKA to close series in Vittoria in slow-pace and most probably underish game. And the most logical pick here is Caja not to score 76 points. Siskauskas to score over 12 points is good option too.

Pick:  Caja L under 75.5 @ 1.80 4/10 Unibet

Partizan - Maccabi

The most unpredictable Game 4 for me tonight. On one hand Partizan is looking more comfortable on the court and have more options on offense and defense, also they have home crowd support and everything else. But other hand Maccabi is more experienced team and they know how to win important games on hot arenas. Also Partizan shooting % was too high to be repeated again as well as 91 FT they did during first 3 games. I have a feeling that if something would not work as it worked in last games for Partizan this game will be too open for Maccabi to win it and force Game 5 at Nokia Arena.

I see value in Maccabi victory and Under 151.5 but I don't have enough confidence to bet on it. Sometimes you need to feel your bet to press a submit button. This time I don't have this feeling.

Prokom - Olympiacos

Quote from my Game 3 preview:

"I hate to be a part of the games when Olympiacos is not playing seriuosly. Both games in Greece were played in this manner and now when Oly has 2-0 lead they can do what they want. They can win by 10+ pts, they can win by 3-6 pts or they can lose and win one of 2 games left. Skipping this game."

Quote from Giannakis interview before Game 4:

"We will return to play Game 4, with the ambition to start from the point we finished on Tuesday. I mean that we want to start the next game in full energy and with the concentration needed. The key point is to avoid the mistakes and the weak points we showed in Game 3 and to play like a team, not individually."

This sounds like a signal to back Olympiacos. I am sure that motivated Olympiacos can win against Prokom easily but in the line Olympiacos is still represented as one class better team playing away game. It is correct version of line and the only question now if Oly is going to win by 6-13 points or they will just win this game by 3-7 points.

According to betting lines second scenario is expected more but here we have a huge winning range from 3 to 13 points and if you believe in luck you can back Olympiacos (-4.5) and be successful in short-term betting. If you are seeking value lines we have to agree that fair line is around -6.5 for Olympiacos and obviously betting on this game is not a value betting.

Pick: Olympiacos (-4.5) 3/10 (low stakes)

Real Madrid - Regal Barcelona

Once again Barcelona proved that Real don't have options in attack to win games against them. Messina's only hope in this series is young Antic performance. But to win game against Barcelona Real should find at least 2-3 players who will suport big man. Unfortunately most of the players in Real can't overcame Barca defense... At least so far they were not able to do this.

After winning Game 3 bookies corrected line and now Barca is between valueable odds around 1.90 and wrong line (-5.5 on Barca would be a wrong line). As result we have Barca as 2.5-3 points favorite and I have to agree that this is a perfect line in this situation. Nobet.