An exciting battle to reach the Final Four starts at Nokia Arena in Tel Aviv, Israel, where Maccabi Electra hosts Partizan in Game 1 of their best-of-five Quarterfinal Playoffs series on Tuesday. Maccabi comes in after a critical road win against Real Madrid that lifted it to win its Top 16 group. Partizan is back in the playoffs for the third consecutive season and has the chance to make it to its first Final Four since 1998. It will be a special game for Maccabi big man Stephane Lasme, who faces his former team for the first time. Lasme, an outstanding defensive player with great timing and determination, offers rebounds and blocked shots along with big man D'or Fischer, who has been in good shape recently. The two were the best shot-blocking duo in the Top 16, but won’t have any easy time in this series against Partizan’s big frontline. Maccabi coach Pini Gershon can use three-point specialist David Bluthenthal or versatile forward Guy Pnini to open the floor or improve the team’s low post game with experienced center Yaniv Green. Fischer and Lasme will have the tough mission to stop Euroleague December MVP Aleks Maric, who can make the difference with his strength and post moves. At the same time, both Maccabi centers will have trouble on offense against giant center Slavko Vranes. Lawrence Roberts could be a key factor not only in this game, but the entire series due to his rebounding skills, shooting range and intensity.

Over 148.5 in Maccabi looks so tempting that public jump on this total. But I will be on opposite side. Because I have never seen in last 6-8 years so defensive-oriented Maccabi version. They almost don't have inside presense in their games, their 3-pts shooting percentage is not high because most of their 3 points shots comes in last seconds, they scores only 77.8 points per game at home if we don't take 43 points scored in last quarter against Montepaschi, and away from home Maccabi scores only 72.5 points per game. But what I like is Maccabi defense. According to my own stats their defensive efficience is 2nd in Euroleague (after Barcelona) with 0.85 pts/per opponents possesion. At home this effecience is better only 0.81/possesion.

Partizan on other side known as very good tactical team. Their defense is looking very good in playoff games and I think that Vranes-Maric duo may close paint zone, stop Maccabi counter attacks and easy points. I am more than sure that Partizan defense can limit Maccabi under 77 points because Maccabi had troubles in scoring 75+ points in most of their games. But offensively Partizan looks very predictable away from home. With 63.1 pts per game in average in away games I hardly see them scoring more than 67-68 points against defensive-Maccabi version.

So I this one could be a low scoring game with both teams scoring under 75 points. I expect something around 140 points so under 149.5 looks very good bet for me.