CSKA Moscow - Zalgiris Kaunas

CSKA Moscow hopes to finish the Euroleague Top 16 in style when it hosts archrivals Zalgiris in the Russian capital on Wednesday. CSKA has a 4-1 record and is already the Group G champion due to its tie-break advantage against Asseco Prokom, which has also advanced to the Quarterfinal Playoffs. Zalgiris is right behind at 2-3, but has no chance to advance to the next round. Despite not being an important game, both teams will fight for a prestigious win, as CSKA and Zalgiris have been big rivals since the late 1980s, when both team met regularly in the Soviet League finals. Both teams may use different rotations in this game due to the circumstances. Zoran Planinic has been starting at point guard for CSKA, with veteran playmaker J.R. Holden and left-handed talent Anton Ponkrashov coming off the bench. Planinic will try to use his size and experience against Mantas Kalnietis. Meanwhile, Holden is ready to use his well-known defensive skills against Aleksandar Capin.

These teams played 3 times this season: CSKA won 90:74 at home in VTB united League (line was -9.5/148.5), Zalgiris took revenge at home 68:63 (+5.5/147.5) and lost in Euroleague 68:83 (+6.5/143.5). Now we have -13.5/153.5 despite underish types of the games before. Actually total in all 3 matches might be lower because in all games at least one team shoot with incredible 3-points percentage.

Statistically total line should be few points lower than it is now especially taking into consideration that only once teams did 156 posessions per game and Pashutin quote that "We should play our best defense from minute one to win the game. We do not want to find ourselves in the same situation we were in Kaunas where we were down by 15 in the first half."

If this game would not have so many lights on because of its history, attributes and standalone Euroleague fixture I would probably try under 154.5 because Zalgiris can find big offensive troubles in half-court game while defensively Lithuanians should be able to defend under 85 points. But on other side we have very good offensive team performance of CSKA and big chance that they will score 80+ points and lock Zalgiris under 73 points. It can be 82:65 as well as 82:73 and I am not seeing really big value in under here. I am just thinking that fair line for this game should be -14.5/151.5 but statistically under game is more probable than over.