Cibona played very good in Khimki and was able to win there but in last quarter they allowed some turnovers which cost them a game. They lost control and lost by 13 points. They only chance to promote from this group is to win by 13 points and I think that they will try to use this opportunity.
Khimki on other side can promote from this group even without winning in Zagreb. I agree that Khimki has better roster by names but they right now they are really not so dominating to be a favorite Euroleague away game. My position in this match is that we should lay Khimki because they have not deserved to be favorite in the line only because the have better chance of promoting from this group.
I bet on Cibona to win this game and Khimki not to score 76 points.
Pick: Cibona +3.5, Khimki under 76.5
Zalgiris - ProkomMy Line: (+2.5/158.5)I honestly speaking expected to see Prokom to be small favorite in this game because they are just a better team at this moment. Sure Zalgiris is a motivated (and still has promotion chance) but without true coach and smart experienced players I will never trust them at this stage of Euroleague where every point counts. I think that Prokom +2.5 is worth a try with low stakes.
Also over 155.5 points looks interesting here but a lot will depend from shooting percentage which is unpredictable for these teams. If everything goes well on offensive end for both team this game has good chances to end with 160+ points. If not, that it can go under 150 points.
Maroussi - BarcelonaMy Line: (+8.5 / 146.5)
Barcelona is definitely playing on the background of fatigue as a moral and physical. 3 matches in the Copa del Rey, travel to Athens, flight back to Sevilla, than to Barcelona and check-in again to the Athens. The first swallow in the face NdongĀ injured elbow and did not fly with a team to Greece. Of course with such roster you can't even to tell about fatique but also I avoid to bet on Barcelona under this circumstances. Especially against the team which is the Euroleague leader by ATS record.
On other side playing against Barcelona is like suicide attempt so I will stay away from betting on this game but my call is Barca to win by stmth like 77-69.
Unicaja - CSKAMy Line: (+2.5 /153.5)Unicaja is still not done in Euroleague. They can promote if they win against CSKA by 9 points and Prokom next week, but they also need CSKA to lose Zalgiris. This scenario is more from phantastic area but everything can happen in sport.
CSKA knows how important this game is and maybe because of this they did a charter flight to Malaga directly to save time and be more prepared for this game. Right now CSKA is better team than Unicaja but away from home they often don't play as they can. Malaga on other side at home can jump over the head and do this quite often. That's why we see so close line for this match. I agree that CSKA is favorite in this match but I don't see enough value in picking them at odds lower than 2.00.
I think that total line should be few points higher because Unicaja is one of the fastest team in Europe and CSKA defense is not working well against such teams. CSKA defense depends mostly on game tempo and not the effeciency that why possible 165 posessions tempo might drive this game to 150-156 points total. However, if Unicaja 3-points shooting will fail this evening game could end in the 142-148 range easily too. And that's why I don't recommend to go heavily on this pick.
Pick: Over 150.5 points