Hapoel Jerusalem - BC Valencia

Here we have almost 12 points difference comparing to first round game when Pamesa was set as heavy 10.5 pts favorite but managed to lose a game having a 9 points lead before 4th quarter. Usually when such turnarounds happens with betting line there is a big chance to find a value.

And I see some value on Pamesa Valencia tonight. First of all Pamesa is deeper and stronger team than Hapoel. I would say much better team on all positions. The only problem with Pamesa is that you never know what to expect from them in each game. Sometimes they play like the top club and sometimes they can lose to Le Mans by 36 points. But that is an old story and I know one fact about Pamesa. They are usually good when they really needs something. This evening they need a victory. They need it because they want to be in Final 4 and they want to be in Euroleague. And they don't want to finish second in the group and meet Bilbao in semifinal. Also they don't want to have a one-game playoff series with Unics next week - what awaits them if they lose today in Israel.

On other side we have Hapoel which had only 48 hours to prepare for this game including home trip from Sunday's game in local league (do you remember how Aris lost to Le Mans in the same situation in week 2?). Also Hapoel will promote into next stage with just one victory in last 2 games or Unics loss to Pamesa next week (or even tonight to Gala but I don't think this will happen). Hapoel for sure is good home team and have great crowd support. But on other side they don't have big players to control rebounds against such big team like Valencia and also they have some problems with rotation which will be a factor today because against Valencia roster they should have a lot of missmatches.

Valencia is more motivated team here and the stronger one, and they are really not weaker than Aris which easily won here in 1st place match at the end of first qualifying group stage. Of course Pamesa is not a team to expect an easy blow out game and that is why this pick is not for high stakes. But I think that Pamesa with handicap is at least a value bet.

Pick: Valencia +1 @ 1.94 4/10 Pinnacle