BC Khimki vs. Caja Laboral

A truly pivotal encounter takes place in Group H where BC Khimki Moscow region hosts Caja Laboral on Thursday. Laboral truly has its back to the wall. Head coach Dusko Ivanovic’s team faces a must-win game – a win for Khimki coupled with a victory for Group H leader Olympiacos over Cibona hands the two tickets to the Quarterfinal Playoffs from the group to the Reds and Khimki. Making matters worse for Laboral is the fact that All-Euroleague center Tiago Splitter is out for this game and the next one with an ankle injury.

Even without Splitter I hold Caja L as a better team in all dimensions. Only few teams in Europe might have -4 handicap against Caja Laboral playing at home and Khimki is not this team. Khimki can accept loss by less than 11 points easily while Caja needs only victory. Caja has better players on all positions and the only slight problem that Caja's players form is not the best one. But on other side this team usually never plays 2 bad games in a row and one game happened against Real Madrid in cup semifinal. Now it is a showtime for Caja Laboral and I expect them to win this game and I have never expected to see them as underdogs in Khimki.

Caja was 7-points favorite in Spain, and now they are 4 points dog? 11 points is too big correction anyway. I think 2.0-1.70 is fair line here with Caja as a slight dog.

Pick: Caja Laboral +3.5 @ 1.88 4/10 Expekt
Pick: Caja Laboral to win @ 2.58 2/10 Pinnacle

Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Unicaja

Zalgiris Kaunas hosts Unicaja on Thursday hoping to keep its fading chances of reaching the Quarterfinal Playoffs alive. Unicaja pounded Zalgiris 86-68 in Spain two weeks ago and now Zalgiris will be eliminated from playoff contention if it loses again to Unicaja. Zalgiris has gone through a rough spell recently, with Darius Maskoliunas taking over as head coach and the club losing to archrival Lietuvos Rytas in the Lithuanian Cup final. Meanwhile Unicaja has good news to report. After missing out on the Spanish King’s Cup Final Eight, the team took time off to rest and is now back with a fully healthy squad for the first time this season. Jospeh Gomis and Saul Blanco are back from respective injuries and Joel Freeland joins Robert Archibald to form a fearsome duo in the paint. The return of Gomis and Blanco has allowed Unicaja to release guard Juan Dixon. Now head coach Aito Garcia Reneses’s biggest problem could be getting minutes for his deep roster.\

Zalgiris does not show signs of life since president released Butautas. Looks like team was shocked by his decision (man really does not understand sports business well) and under new coach from old staff this team can't play for long. Tonight Zalgiris however is motivated more than ever because they were humilitated in Spain, they lost cup final to Rytas and fans wants to see real Zalgiris. I think that against run and gun style of Unicaja Zalgiris at home should feel much better in offense. If this team scored 68-75 to much better defenses of Barca, Montepaschi, Fener and Cibona why they should score less to Unicaja? So I see 70+ points for Zalgiris here for sure. On other side Zalgiris forgot how to defend. They are allowing 80+ points from most of the teams of their level and Unicaja with 12 players in the roster can score more than 78 points.

I think that tempo will make everything here. Zalgiris will score 72-78 points and Unicaja in 78-85. 157.5 total line looks like a fair one here.

Pick: over 152.5 @ 1.90 5/10 Unibet

Partizan vs. Maroussi BC

Few basketball expert could have predicted it barely a month ago, but a battle for first place in Group E is scheduled in Belgrade, Serbia, where Partizan hosts Maroussi BC in front of an extraordinary basketball atmosphere at Pionir Arena on Thursday night. The two teams are locked in a three-way tie with Regal FC Barcelona for first place in Group E with 2-1 records, so it comes as no surprise to say that the winner will take a giant steps towards making it to the playoffs. There is some good news for Partizan, as December MVP Aleks Maric is back in action and ready to make his Top 16 debut against Maroussi. Maric gives a new dimension to Partizan with his rebounds, post skills and aggressiveness. Maric is a perfect complement to giant center Slavko Vranes, who offers intimidation on defense, and power forward Lawrence Roberts, who powers the boards and opens the court with his mid-range shots. Maroussi may travel to Belgrade without backup center Dimitris Mavroeidis due to a foot injury. On the other hand, Levon Kendall is back in action and ready to help his team.

I see Partizan winning this one but handicap set pretty well. You should know that Maroussi in this Euroleague edition owns 14-3 against the spread (ATS) record before placing a bet against them.

Real Madrid vs. Montepaschi

A clash between two serious Final Four contenders highlights another round of Top 16 action in Group F on Thursday when Real Madrid hosts Montepaschi Siena. Entering the week, no team in the group has achieved a road win, making the four teams – Maccabi Electra and Efes Pilsen being the other two – hardly separable. Both Madrid and Montepaschi arrive after grueling weekends that featured much different outcomes. Madrid overcame Eurocup challenger DKV Joventut and fellow Euroleague side Caja Laboral to reach the King’s Cup final, but was taken apart by Regal Barcelona in the title game. Meanwhile Montepaschi, which like Madrid played three games in as many days – had an easier rout to the final before overcoming Canadian Solar Bologna for the Italian Cup. These teams met two weeks ago in Siena, Italy, with All-Euroleague point guard Terrell McIntyre leading Montepaschi to an 83-76 victory by recording 24 points on 6-of-9 three-point shooting, 11 assists and 3 steals. His performance also earned him Top 16, Week 3 MVP honors.

Another nobet game for me. I do not feel well Real with Messina and I don't like this year Montepaschi. Let them play alone.

Panathinaikos vs. Regal Barcelona

A crucial Group E clash takes place in the Greek capital on Thursday when Panathinaikos hosts Regal Barcelona at OAKA. It is truly a must-win clash for both teams. Defending champion Panathinaikos enters the game winless in the Top 16 and will loss any mathematical chances of reaching the Quarterfinal Playoffs with another loss to Barca. The Spanish champs meanwhile are tied for first place in the group at 2-1, but would fall behind in the standings for the first time all season with a loss. The two teams’ momentum took another step in opposite directions over the weekend in the domestic cups. While Barcelona crushed its archrival Real Madrid to lift the Spanish King’s Cup, Panathinaikos fell to its archrival Olympiacos in the Greek Cup final.

I will be short on this one. Barcelona for sure is better side at this moment. PAO needs some magic which can be provided by sold out OAKA arena. For me it is very hard to bet against Barcelona, but this time my intuition tells me that PAO will fight for a victory. Best version of this PAO can win against this Barcelona at home in this table situation (Barca can lose this game up to 10 points without any effect on its chance to win a group). The only questions is: WILL WE SEE A BEST PAO VERSION OR THE REGULAR ONE? Regular is not enough to win... even against a bit tired Barcelona.