Bilbao on paper is better and more experienced team but they are missing something. That "something" is sporting form of some key players like Blums, Warren, Seibuit, Pasquez, Banic. Bilbao always was a TEAM they never were team of stars but they always were playing like a team. Right now they are trying to play as a team but team members can't find their rhytm. In every game they 2-3 players who are playing at good level but without support from others they can't win games. But this game is a special one and it will be played at home so we can expect that those sleeping players will wake up and will add their points, rebounds, steals to the outcome.

Donetsk is really nice team of individually strong players. Tucker, Owens, Perry, Drozdov, Marsh and Sundov are experienced players who can shoot well. But right now they are showing very questionable results. They won hard 2 away games against medium ukrainian clubs and lost at home by 20 points to UNICS in VTB League. After game with Unics R.Butautas confirmed that there are some health problems. As you know Ukraine is hit by H1N1 virus these days and looks like American players of Donetsk are responding to this with poor play. Maybe there are some other type of injuries but results are showing a drop in their form. Looks like coach lost control over a team and this is bad sign.

Anyway sportsbooks set line almost perfectly. It started with -8.5 but now most bookies has -9.5 or -10.5 line because of Pinnacle move to -10.5 early in the morning. I don't see value here because I think that Bilbao right now does not have enought trust to be held a clear favorite of this game. Donetsk is full of good players who can provide points and handle pressure, but a lot will depend on Butautas coaching abilities. If he will be able to control team on the court I think that this will be a very tough challenge for Bilbao Basket. If not Bilbao should qualify with hard-earned victory by 9-14 points.

Personally I took Bilbao -8.5 in the morning and will root for them on Eurosport-2 tonight. But I really think that this bet should be considered as a TV-pick because it was placed on fair line, and if you care about long-term profit you should avoid such bets. But if you want to have a nice eve with bottle of the beer - that is good choice. It is like placing a bet on Champions League Final - you don't know who will win but you have opinion about outcome. Odds telling the same but you still bet on it because you need adrenaline in your blood.

Have a nice evening.