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Basketball Betting Picks -
Eurocup Betting Tips
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Tuesday, 27 October 2009 10:48 |
 Valencia Basket vs. Dexia Mons-HainautA former competition champion and a Final Eight participant last season, Valencia BC hosts Dexia Mons-Hainaut on Tuesday knowing it has its work cut out if it want to repeat past glory. Valencia must erase a 15-point deficit from the first leg of its Eurocup qualifying series if it is to reach the regular season. The key for the visitors from Belgium will be to duplicate their Game 1 showing, including the hustle that generated so many rebounds and steals as well as the impressive 11-for-20 (55%) shooting effort from behind the arc. Mons head coach Arik Shivek will naturally instruct his guards to play at a slow pace, knowing that the clock will work against Valencia. The outcome could be dictated by the play of the guards, with the Tolbert-Marshall one something that the series could hinge one.
BETTING ANALYSIS
This is the only game in todays Eurocup day where I decided to back favorite. As I have told in my last week Eurocup betting preview Pamesia is better class team. I would say even 2 class better than Belgium team. While Dexia coach has only 7 players who can play on this level and only 5 of them have the righ to make a shot, N.Spahija has 10 players who can defend, shoot and score points. Spanish team is better on all positions (especially on the bench) and they should dominate at home in all aspects of the game.
In Game 1 Valencia shot only 13/36 2-pointers (36.1%) and if they would score at least 50% they would win that game. Playing at home I expect Valencia to raise their percentage and play much better defense against Belgium team leaders. Belgians on other side will try to slow down the pace of the game because game clock will play into their favour.
I don't expect Valencia to play like Barcelona and make +30 after the HT so you should not expect easy win of this pick. Don't be suprised to see Valencia win by 17-18 pts. With their ability to defend under 66 points and score in the 76-85 points range I think that Valencia has good chances to cover the handicap and qualify for Eurocup group stage.
Actually this line does not have a lot of value but here we have situational factor on our side because Valencia MUST WIN by 16 points. So it is better to take handicap less than 16 points. Betfair is the only public company which offers -15.5 handicap but most online sportsbooks offer -16.5 hc or higher.
Prediction: Valencia Basket 83 - 62 Dexia Mons
Pick: Valencia (-16.5) @ 1.90 4/10 (medium-low stakes)
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