Eurobasket-2011
Eurobasket-2011 Qualification: Day 6 Picks
Israel - Italy
This is the last chance for Italy to get back into Eurobasket-2011 battle. After their loss to Montenegro they are in must win situation today because Israel won against them in Italy. Italians now have Giachetti on PG rotation and it is a big boost for them. Also Italy has much more time to prepare for this crucial battle because they did not play this weekend. Also Italy was good in defending against Israel big mans at home but were bad on perimeter where guards demolished them. If Italy will do a step forward in defense this evening they will have very good chances to fight for the victory.
Israel is good team but they are really not much better than Italy. Yes, their game is maybe more solid and confident but -7.5 points is too public in my opinion. It should 2-2.5 points lower and if your strategy is ok for such line value you can take Italy handicap points. I would try with low stakes.
Pick: Italy +7.5 3/10 Pinnacle
Bulgaria - Portugal
Bulgaria will win this one for sure and will to it very easy but I don't see any value in this line either handicap or total.
Latvia - Montenegro
It is pretty funny to see Montenegro as 10 points away favorite after they were only 7.5 points favorite at home in first qualification round. Usually I pick such big line moves by backing understimated side but here unfortunately I can't see Latvia winning this game and this is only reason why I am not willing to take Latvia +10.5 with medium stakes. At home Latvia always playing with heart but now world is not enought to stop Pekovic.. Pekovic alone is going to bring victory here and with organized Montenegro team defense it is pretty hard to expect Latvia to fight for the victory. However, 10.5 points handicap might be another good option for smaller stake. But I will try with even lower stake than Italy handicap because here I don't see winning chances to Latvia.
Pick: Latvia +10.5 2/10 Pinnacle
Poland - Georgia
There are some rumours that Zaza Pachulia will see less minutes tonight due the injury but they are not confirmed officially. Let's see what will happen but be sure that Poland will try to do everything to win by 20 points to get h-2-h advantage over Georgia. But Georgia is quite good team to avoid this scenario and this is why I think game will be played around 12-13 advantage to host side. Maybe it will end with 16 points Poland's victory or by 8 points.
I don't see big value here but if you have the opportunity to bet on exchange you can take -6.5 at 1.65. I think that right line here is -9.5/147.5 for Poland.
Pick: Poland (-6.5) @ 1.65 4/10 Betfair
Great Britain - Hungary
Macedonia - Ukraine
Nobet games for me because I am not sure that Hungary & Ukraine are motivated at all and handicaps are too solid for home teams to jump on them.
By using a 