Eurobasket 2009
Eurobasket-2009: Group B Preview
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Now is the time for this young generation to write their names in Latvian, and probably European, basketball history. Since 2007 centre Andris Biedrins of NBA club Golden State Warriors has become a cornerstone of the team on both sides of the court and his appearance make more solid team performance. After some years break Kaspars Kambala - one of surprising stars of EuroBasket 2001 - is back in the Latvian national team and with these two giants in the roster Latvia is no longer just a "run and gun" squad.
In the last few years some other Latvian players have improved their skills as well. Both point guards Kristaps Valters and Janis Blums had a good season in Spain. Excellent three-point shooter Kristaps Janicenoks was named one of the best players in the Italian Lega Due. Inimitable combo guard Armands Skele and promising power forward Kaspars Berzins led Barons/LMT to the FIBA Europe EuroCup title in 2008 , as they became the first Latvian men's team to win a European title since 1960.
n EuroBasket 2009 the Latvian orchestra will play under a new coach. Looking for fresh experiences and ideas some Latvian clubs have invited foreign coaches and the results were good enough to continue this way with national team too. In EuroBasket qualification Latvia was lead by Serbian born coach Nenad Trajkovic. Before the finals though the federation turned to a closer neighbour, hiring Lithuanian Kestutis Kemzura who brought in as his assistants a former national team head coach Igors Miglinieks and long time Latvian point guard Edmunds Valeiko.
Prediction: 7-9 place
Latvia has enough class and inside presence to control games against Russia and Germany in the group stage. Also they have deliver problems to France and if they will be able to win 3-4 games they can enter quartefinals. But they still have a lot of weak points starting from bench support and ending with coaching level (don't think that Kemzura is really good head coach) to be in the semifinals.
Reigning champions Russia start the 2009 EuroBasket in Poland as a team weakened by injuries and departures. The 2007 title-winning coach David Blatt is missing the likes of J.R. Holden, Andrei Kirilenko as well as late injury setbacks to big men Viktor Khryapa and Sasha Kaun. In fact, Blatt will be without the entire starting five from the historic night in Madrid two summers ago.Blatt has been forced to form a team of inexperienced players led by returnees Anton Ponkrashov and Sergey Monya, who combined to average 7.9 points in Spain 2009, and naturalized American Kelly McCarty.
Prediction: 10-14 place
If Khryapa would be playing for this team I would still believe in the Blatt coaching skills. I was really impressed how he built another Russian team without 2 leaders this summer. But when you lose key player and sole of the team just 10 days before tournament star and starting center it is just too much for team like Russia. However, they still do have chances against Germany and maybe Latvia but in general this Eurobasket campaign could be very sad for Russia. They will fight in all games but those missings are not covered by anyone.
Gone of course is Nowitzki and Chris Kaman, but also missing from the Beijing side which placed tenth of 12 teams with a 1-4 record in the 2008 Games are long-time veterans Pascal Roller and Robert Garrett while Philip Zwiener was unable to build upon his fine last season to retain his spot in Bauermann's side.Bauermann's team is loaded with top quality, young forwards and centers. In addition to Jagla, Tim Ohlbrecht is still an enormously talented center at 21-years-old as is 19-year-old Tibor Pleiss. Should he make the squad, Pleiss would be an example of the future talent that Bauermann wants to integrate into his senior side - also out of a matter if necessity since Germany's system failed to develop many prospects in the previous couple generations. Elias Harris and Robin Benzing are both just 20 years old and on the cusp of making the 2009 EuroBasket side while Per Guenther and Lucca Staiger are both 21, Johannes Lischka is 22 and Heiko Schaffartzik is still just 24 years of age.
What Bauermann lacks is a difference maker in the backcourt. That could change with the arrival of Staiger. The Iowa State University sharpshooter averaged 8.2 points a game for the Cyclones, scoring in double figures 11 times including 24 points against Drake. Staiger's ability to fit into the national team in his first tournament with the senior side could play a big role in Germany's success. A long-time prospect in the Alba Berlin system who has bounced around in the past few years, Schaffartzik is also ready to bring his fine showings in the German BBL league to the national team side, where he has never played.
Prediction: 12-16 place
They key games for Bauermann's team will be against Latvia and Russia. If they win at least one they have good chances to get out of this group. If not, they will fight for 13-16 place. Even if they will promote from this group they simply don't have enough class to compete with other teams for a place in quartefinals.
After loosing four games that would have sent them to EuroBasket 2009, the French national team finally didn't choke on the return leg of its Additional Qualifying Tournament final against Belgium. Well prepared by this full month of competition, France has the potential to make a great run, but consistency has never been their forte. With Tony Parker, Boris Diaw, Ronny Turiaf, Nicolas Batum, all legitimate NBA players, plus Nando De Colo (drafted by the Spurs this summer), Ian Mahinmi (back from injury in the Spurs roster next season) and even Flo Piétrus, announced as a future Bobcats next season, France seems to have the potential to reach the podium. And just imagine that Mike Piétrus (NBA finalist with Orlando but coming back from a wrist injury), Joakim Noah (starting center of the Bulls) could not join "les Bleus" this summer, while Gelabale (a former Sonics), Petro (Nuggets) and Diawara (Miami) chose not to come or did not make the cut.
When concentrated on defense, France can make its opponent look like a U16 squad with unbelievable pressure on the ball and on the passing lane. But when the players are not 100% into the game, France can also look like a team fighting relegation to EuroBasket Division B. Fans, journalists and all basketball lovers in France can get driven crazy when watching their favorite team.
Prediction: 3-6 place
On first group stage France should not experience any problems with promoting. Maybe game against Latvia will provide some difficulties if Latvia will find its momentum. I would not be suprised with France finishing 3-0 after 1st group stage and this should enough to enter quarterfinal. In playoffs a lot will depend on their mentality. They should forget all their losses in semi- and quarterfinals in previuos campaigns to enter medals stage where they chances for reaching a podium are really good. But if they fail in quarterfinals I expect to see them on WC-2010 in Turkey.
