FIBA World Championship 2010
FIBA WC-2010. Final Day
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I don't see anything interesting for a bet in finals and bronze medal match so betting of FIBA World Champioship is over now. Enjoy basketball and game.
Good luck. And see you on Euroleague qualification games!
FIBA WC-2010. Semifinals picks
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Slovenia - Russia
Russian without A.Kaun in this match and without him they might have huge defensive problems if Mozgov will get in foul trouble as he likes. Slovenia has much more weapons offensively, better player and longer bench. They have to dominate in this game and I would not be suprised with double digits win of Slovenia. But for 5-6 place match line has too low value for official bet.
USA - Lithuania
First semifinal which is very awaited in Lithuania because everyone here expect to see another surprise from these guys. I never was in position that US is a best team here and I absolutely sure that they are not unbeatable. If greens wants to go to the final first thing they should do is to cut their turnovers, second shoot 3-pointers with high percentage and third play smart defense. Honestly speaking looking into Lithunian team progress at this tournament there is a chance that they getting their best form these days and if this is true that can help them today to make a dream.
Statistically line is set quite well and I don't see any value in picking either total or handicap, but I would be forced I would take Lithuania +13.5. But this is not an official pick. Official one is Lithuania to win with 1/10 because as I said earlier I am going to lay US until the end of tournament.
Pick: Lithuania @ 8.0 1/10 Betfair
Turkey - Serbia
It would be strange to see Turkey as dogs in the line but also I don't think that -6.5 handicap is a fair one here. Turkoglu and his warriors were ultra-successful in their last 2 games against France by hitting almost every shot from the distance. Unfortunatelly statistically it is hard to expect another 75% FG percentage from all distances against defensively very solid looking Serbia. Serbia is more balanced team with deeper bench, 10-players rotation and Duda always can change tactics if someone from leaders are off the game. But can you can me what Tanjevic will do if Turkoglu or Ilyasova will have a bad day? Or those crazy 3-pointers would not fall this evening? He can't change anything in his team.. he needs megaform from his leaders to win games and I think that D.Ivkovic has good plan for this game how to stop turkish offense.
According to interviews Serbia's game plan is not to allow Turkey to make another huge 1st half lead. If they stay close till the of 3rd quarter pressure will play against Turkish team and as we all know Turkish teams never was good in delivering results under the pressure.
Serbia won 2 games against Turkey in Turkey in the beginning of August. They know this team, they know how to win and for me they are better team. If this game would be played on neutral ground I would set Serbia as 3.5 favorite. Today they are playing away-type of game but Turkish home court is not worth 10 points in my line.
My line here is -3/152.5 and I see value in both positions. First Serbia +7 at Pinnacle, and second under 158 points. Low pace (Turkey avg. pace is only 157 possessions per game) is expected here and defense must roll in finally at this tournament.
Pick: Serbia +7 @ 1.84 4/10 Pinnacle
Pick: Serbia to win @ 3.41 2/10 Pinnacle
Pick: Under 158 @ 1.95 4/10 Pinnacle
FIBA WC-2010. Day 10 Picks
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Spain - Serbia
Public believes in Spain and bet on Spain to cover the spread easily. Honestly speaking I also hold them as WC favorite but there is only one team on this planet who can beat them at this moment. And it is young and ambitious Serbia... Some of you will call me crazy because Spanish roster is full of stars and experience and I agree with you. But sometimes I listen my intuition and now I am forced to go against Spain because of value.
Serbia is young but really very-very good team. They have 10 man rotation. They are better on PG, FW and C positions because for me Velickovic, Macvan, Savanovic are better than Reyes with neck problems and old Mumbru & Garbajosa. On C position Krstic is much much better than bad copy of P.Gasol (by the way M.Gasol had tonsilitis this week and has not trained with a team), and M.Teodosic is the same calibre player as R.Rubio but D.Ivkovic has also A.Rasic and S.Markovic while Scariolo has only R.Lopez as back up playmaker.
Statistically there is also no reason to set Spain as 6.5 points favorite. Serbia has better offense (87 against 84) and better defense (69.5 against 72) and also Serbia is listed in many statistical categories as Top5 team. Finally, this serbian guys won against Spain in Poland when P.Gasol was playing. Ok they lost in the final but they had only one day to prepare for that game. Now they had 3 days and I think that D.Ivkovic has much better plan for this match.
This game might a be break moment in basketball for next 5-6 years. If Serbia wins they will become a leading force in Europe for long and we will never see them as 6.5 dogs against any european team. I see close match here with winner deciding in the end and I think that Serbia worth a shot here.
Pick: Serbia +7 @ 1.87 Pinnacle 4/10
Turkey - Slovenia
I expect low pace basketball here with long possessions and a lot of defensive work from both sides. In last games both teams overperformed offensively by shooting with 70% shooting from 2 pts zone or 16/33 3-pointers for Slovenia against Australia. It will be hard to show such percentage again because a lot is on the stake especially for Turkey.
I expect 135-148 points game here so my line is 141.5 points what is 6 points under the line bookies set. If nobody will shoot 15/28 3-pointers this evening I hardly see this game going over 144 points. I expect Turkey to score 68-78 points and Slovenia 65-72 so will bet on under with medium-low stakes.
Total is ok for a bet till 146.5.
Pick: Under 147.5 @ 1.98 3/10 Betfair
Spain - Serbia
Public believes in Spain and bet on Spain to cover the spread easily. Honestly speaking I also hold them as WC favorite but there is only one team on this planet who can beat them at this moment. And it is young and ambitious Serbia... Some of you will call me crazy because Spanish roster is full of stars and experience and I agree with you. But sometimes I listen my intuition and now I am forced to go against Spain because of value.
FIBA WC-2010. Day 11 picks
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USA - Russia
Everybody on this planet is impressed by USA 60+ points win over Angola and cruise-control wins over Tunisia and Iran. But this is a playoff and this is a strange russian souls. Do you remember how these guys won against Spain in Eurobasket 2007? They will die on the court to make history and playing without pressure russian boys can do miracles.
FIBA WC-2010. Day 9 pick
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Lithuania - China
"I was on the third floor and my team was on the ninth floor and when the kid (Huertas) hits the basket at the buzzer to cut it to nine, I walked out my door to the elevator to go tell my team about it and I could hear the screaming on the ninth floor from my players.mI jumped on the elevator," - Donewald said. "When my elevator doors opened, there were my guys, laying on the floor, crying and hugging, jumping around.”
China players were lucky to enter playoff stage but honestly speaking as a team I like them much more than Puerto Rico and for me they deserved to be here because they respected all their opponents and were fighting until the end in all matches. Ok, there are really young team but they also have have very experienced core of the team which is going to have most minutes today against Lithuania.
Some bookies like Expekt or Bet365 have Lithuania as 16.5 points favorite but I really don't rate my team as top team at this World Cup. They are coming from the weakest group of this tournament where they won all their games by traling by 10 or more points against France, Canada and Spain. Lithuania has deep bench and higher class for sure as a team but under the boards they will have troubles against tall chinese players this evening. Don't forget that we have only one real center R.Javtokas and it will be hard to control rebounds. Also I think that bookies overestimating Lithuania defense which is currently allowing only 68.2 points per game but at group stage only Spain and New Zeland were teams who can score 70+ in each game. Canada, France and Lebanon as tournament showed are offensively weak teams.
China scored 70+ points in all their games except last one against Turkey where they played without 3 key players. And China played against very good defensive teams like Turkey, Russia and Greece. They know how to attack rims from distance and paint as well as run fast counter attacks. I expect China to score over 70 points tonight against Lithuanian defense. Weak point of this Chinese team is their defence. They are fast team because they have american coach who is trying to create american system of game with pick-n-rolls, fast attacks and all this leads to fast pace. China is a third team here by pace after USA and Cot d'Ivoire but they have one of the weakest defenses here. All teams score them 84+ points and only africans scored 73..
So what do we have here? First I think that China is capable of scoring around 75 points and second Lithuania's offensive potential is not unlimited. I doubt that Lithuania is going to score 96 points to cover 16.5 spread easily. For me fair line here is 88-74.5 so my picks here are: China to hold 16.5 handicap and over 155.5 points. By the way Betfair has 153.5 line.
Total is ok till 156.5..
Pick: Over 155.5 @ 1.85 5/10 William Hill
Pick: China +16 @ 1.99 2/10 Pinnacle
Lithuania - China
"I was on the third floor and my team was on the ninth floor and when the kid (Huertas) hits the basket at the buzzer to cut it to nine, I walked out my door to the elevator to go tell my team about it and I could hear the screaming on the ninth floor from my players.mI jumped on the elevator," - Donewald said. "When my elevator doors opened, there were my guys, laying on the floor, crying and hugging, jumping around.”
By using a 