|
Connecticut Sun (26-8) at Washington Mystics (18-16)
SPREAD: Washington 3.5 TOTAL: 156.5
Hmm... I spend about 40 minutes to read what newspapers write about these pair and analyzing their h-2-h stats. And I found one excellent phrase said by R.Adubato from Mystics: "Anything can happen in the playoff, that’s one thing you learn about professional sports" Connecticut is clearly a "public" team today and they are much better than Mystics. And punters will play Connecticut today because they were so hot in the end of the season. And they are right. Suns are really better, they have experience, they had won all away games when they started series away from home. That's all OK, I fear another thing. Yesterday both away teams managed to win their games. And today both conference winners plays away from home. I think that playoff scenario should have at least one home win in Game 1. And this win could happen today because one time Washington already won Connecticut at home and today when they have all squad available and they don't have psychological press in their heads because they already reached their season goal and nobody will say bad word if they would lost to Connecticut this series. They probably play their last home game season and I think that it could be a factor for such team like Mystics. Connecticut is a bit injury troubled with K.Douglas calf injury and Nykesha Sales back to the lineup. But who can give guarantee that Sales would not break game for Suns? Something is wrong here.. in those odds, sportsbooks asking us to put our money on Suns to cover a spread... but their work is to earn money on our mistakes. Let's not mistake today. Personally I'll skip this game. If you planning to watch this game live or on TV try Suns over 80 or over 156 because Suns scored 19+ points in 10 of 12 quarters played this season with Mystics. And if Mystics will surprise us today they have to find a key for a win in offense and score at least 78 points because they are 0-7 SU when they are under 77.
Los Angeles Sparks (25-9) at Seattle Storm (18-16)
SPREAD: Seattle -1 TOTAL: 148.5 I think that total line is set correctly here so I would spend time on writing why I think so. The reason is: their average quarter scoring is somewhere about 37 points. Spread line overestimates Seattle chances to make a surprise. Lauren Jackson is bit tired and injury troubled. Sparks are hungry for a win, because Seattle is sometimes unpredictable team especially for me, and for Sparks who lost 4 of last 5 games to Seattle. But at this moment Leslie and Co are better and they have to take advantage from this. More correct line should about -3.5. My line is just 2.5 points from sportsbooks line and in such situation I prefer to lower my bets to a size "just to watch what will happen" instead of earning some money. Predicted score: Seattle 72 - 78 LA Sparks Bet on: LA Sparks ML (low stake)
New articles on this topic:
Older articles on this topic: |
