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WNBA pick for August 11

Written by Alleks

Friday, 11 August 2006

Detroit Shock (22-10) at Washington Mystics (17-15)
SportBooks Line: Washington -1.5 TOTAL: 153.5

The Washington Mystics will look to set the franchise record for regular season victories when they host the Detroit Shock tonight at Verizon Center. And here they key-quotes for this game as for me:

"I don't know how big our game against Washington really is," Detroit Coach Bill Laimbeer said. "We could see them in the conference finals if we both win our series. This game could send a message if we play them again."

"This is a big test for us before the playoffs because Detroit is one of the best teams in the league," Washington guard Nikki Teasley said. "If we can get a win over the number two team in our conference, that would be big for our confidence."

So here is how I'm taking this situation. Detroit is currently is one cruise-control mode, when key players are on the bench and reserves plays more minutes. And they were a bit lucky with such easy season ending schedule when they meet Chicago, New York at the end of the season and they don't anything to play for because they already clinched 2nd position in a playoff race while the pole position is taken by Connecticut.

Detroit is experienced team and they know that now it's not a time to show their real game to possible playoff opponent. And this is a main factor why I think that Detroit will play easily and I doubt that they will turn off their tough defence today.

WNBA league don't have a lot of up-tempo teams like Washington or Phoenix, and game tempo have really big impact on total. Look how Detroit played 4 games with WAS and PHO this year:

@ Washington L 68-92
@ Phoenix L 79-93
Washington W 92-86
Phoenix L 76-91

Average total of 169 while Detroit season average total is only 144 points. This fact tells that Detroit is able to adopt to any style, and they know how to play run-and-gun basketball.

Washington scored 20+ points in all 8 quarters played against Detroit this season and I think that today they have easily reach 82-83 points mark if the same performance will continue. Detroit should score about 17-19 points per quarter and score more than 72 points as I think looking into h-2-h stats.

So my prediction is: Washington will set franchise record by beating Detroit Shock at where they are 12-4. And they will do it in Washington style (do you remember about their home winning average of 89-74??? )