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Sacramento Monarchs (16-10) at Connecticut Sun (19-6)
BETTIN SPREAD: Connecticut -6 TOTAL: 145
Game keyphrase: "They are like Detroit and L.A. They've got a lot of stars," Sacramento coach John Whisenant said. "We have to get our defense back in order. It's pretty easy to see where our problem is." Public money goes to home side and over, and that sounds ok because Connecticut have 10-2 home record and average home total of 152 pts (81-71). Sacramento lost 2 away games and all this trends works on Connecticut win. But let's look a bit deeper into things. Look how Connecticut plays with defensive low-tempo teams this season: @ Sacramento L 63-69 L U 144
@ Indiana W 76-66 U 144.5
Detroit L 64-70 U 147.5
Houston W 73-57 U 149
Detroit L 73-77 (69-69) O 148 They played 5 unders and no overs in these games (I take 40 min. result with Detroit 69-69 instead of taking FT result 73-77) and their scoring average with defensive teams is only 69.8 pts. In last year finals and reg. season games their totals with Monarchs were 121, 121, 124, 136, 140. And even WNBA rules changes did not affected on this trend their first game ended with SAC win 69-63 (132) and Connecticut had troubles in offense by doing 26 turnovers and shooting only 3-14 from 3 pts line. Sacramento is still 65-70 pts team in offense and I expect them to score somewhere in this range because Connecticut with low-tempo teams allows 67.8 pts. While they already proved in all h-2-h games with Connecticut that they are able to limit their scoring down to 63~70 points. And one more factor I like is that Sacramento were 1-10 in over-under in aways games until last 2 games with Detroit and Indiana (here they were one step away from one more under but hit the over because of huge mistake in the line). So this game would not be easy one for both teams, but Connecticut is more stable in this period and plays at home, so my prediction is Connecticut win in low-tempo defensive style game. Predicted score: Connecticut 72 - 67 Sacramento Betting Pick: UNDER 145 (medium stake) Phoenix Mercury (11-14) at San Antonio Silver Stars (11-14)
BETTING SPREAD: San Antonio -1.5 TOTAL: 162 Totally wrong betting odds here I think because Phoenix should be favored here. Let me explain why. 10 reasons why Phoenix should beat San Antonio today: 1) They lost 1st game 76-82 and now they are in must win situation to get advantage over SA in case of level wins amount at the end of the season 2) SA lost 6 of last 7 games 3) SA is missing 2 key players Anderson and Ely 4) SA does not have winning mentality because they used to be underdogs 5) According to Arizona Central Taylor participated in light drills Wednesday, while another injured Vodichkova played with Houston this night. So there is a chance that Phoenix will play full squad today against injury troubled Silver Stars. 6) Taurazi is in a superb form with yesterday 41 pts. And if all injuried will be available for today's game SA will have big troubles in defence with total Phoenix offense where 5 players can score in double digits. 7) All left games are must win games for Phoenix if they plan to reach playoffs, and they can't allow to lose points now. 8) Phoenix had won 8 of last 10 games against San Antonio. 9) SA Antonio have some kind of troubles in offense lately by scoring only 67.3 in last 6 games while Phoenix know how to defend when it is needed and I expect that SA would not score more than 75 points today. 10) Phoenix is 8-2-0 ATS with SA in last 10 games. Predicted score: San Antonio 74 - 82 Phoenix Betting Pick: Phoenix +1.5 (medium-high stake)
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