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Argentina - Turkey
"Lucky team" against "high class" team. Turkey have plenty of injuries in their squad but as usual it's hard to say which injury is really seriuos. But according to Eurobasket.com we have such situation (if you know more please post your info in comments section). Turkish NT may have been making a great fight since the beginning of the world championship but they have been struggling to fight the injuries. It seems like Ersan Ilyasova (208-F-87)'s sprained ankle will keep him away from the action during the quarter finals. Ilyasova, leading the best young player poll of the championship picked up an ankle injury just before tip off of the first place clash against Greece and missed two games in a row. On the other hand NT captain Ibrahim Kutluay (198-F/G-74) who stayed on the floor for almost 30 minutes against Slovenia despite his sprained ankle is likely to miss the quarter final fight on Tuesday. Ironicly all members of Turkish team except Engin Atsur and Semih Erden are suffering various injuries and team doctors are hoping they will be fine till Tuesday.
Argentina leaders were more rested because they did not played in group stage a lot (only 2 seriuos games with Serbia and France), their bench got a lot of minutes and everybody from a bench can step up and improve team performance.
Turkey have more problems with their squad, they are tired and injury troubled. But what I like in this team is their willness to win and fighting spirit. They never gave up in their games and that helped them a lot at this championship. In general Argentina is really better team from all points of view. I like that they usually starts strong and get good points spread before HT break. I think that same scenario could be repeated in this game. I have read that Argentina is planning to use some kind of special defense which was developed especially for Turkish style, so I expect Turkey to have some problems at the beginning of this game. After HT Turkey could try to cut points deficit but Argentina will win on class.
I also like under here but I don't hold this under bet as a very strong. Main reasons why I want to play under is that Argentina had 16 of 25 quarters when they allowed less than 20 points, while average of those quarters was only 14.2 pts. Turkey have the same stats: 15 of 25 qaurters under 20 pts, and average of those quarters 15 pts. If this tendency will continue tomorrow we have to see at least 1 or 2 quarter when one of the will score less than 16 points, and both teams had such quarters on a group stage. Also Turkey had only 1 quarter when they allowed more than 24 points. So seems I expect that both teams will have low scoring quarter and both teams can score less than bookies total set. Predicted score: Argentina 81 - 68 Turkey Pick: Argentina HT -4.5 @ 1.87 10Bet.com (medium confidence)
Pick: UNDER 156.5 @ 1.893 10Bet.com (medium-low confidence) Lithuania - Spain
Spread is diffucult to predict because Lithuania have enough talent to cover a spread in this match, but also this team have enough stupidity to make 25 TO per match and to lose 20 points. What I really like in this match is an over bet. Here is a reason: Lithuania beat 75 points total in 11 of 13 played matches (including friendlies), Spain beat 83 points total in 13 of 15 last matches. Lithuania never had scored less than 69 points (game with Greece which ended 69-69 before OT) and Spain usually allow somewhere in the 68-72 points range. So we have situation when both teams have a great chance to score more than sportsbooks total line offer and I think that this is a best pick to play here, because this game could be 165-170 performance. Predicted score: Lithuania 83 - 89 Spain Pick: OVER 158.5 @ 1.90 10Bet.com (high confidence)
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