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Tomorrow World Championships in Japan starts and I have one more project on betonbasket.com. I will play with a virtual $10,000 bank with my own strategy by betting different bet's value on event. Here is short recommendation how to understand my confidence in a pick: $250 pick - low stake, I feel that this pick could bring me some money but I feel that this is a bit risky bet $375 pick - medium stake, quite confident pick but some factors still bother me... $500 pick - medium-high stake I would be surprised if this pick would bring me money. $1000 pick - high stakes, 100% confidence Germany - Japan
Both teams are defensive style teams. Both coaches are defensive minded. Germany have size under basket with Femerling and Nowitsky on court. Germany have not scored more than 82 points while their normal scoring is somewhere in 70-76 pts range. Nowitsky is not in a top form and this a main reason why Germans scored only 47 against Greece week ago. Japan have very aggressive defence, they don't have size but there are some tactics in basketball how small player can defend against big guys like Femerling and I absolutely sure that japan will use this tactic. The main rule is to block tall player from ball. In offense Japan will have seriuos troubles too because they would not have any chances under basket so the only chance is to shoot a ball from 6 metres line. They did 29 3-pointers attempts in friendly with Senegal and lose a rebounding battle 60-62) and the same story will repeat today I suppose.
But I think that Germany have a receipt how to block this only Japanese gun so I don't think that Japan will be able to score more than 57 points with such opponent like Germany team. At the same time Germany should not score more than 78-80 points due the good defensive performance from Japan.
Seems that sportbooks underestimated Japan side abilities in defend and it's a good chance for us to make a pick here. Predicted score: Germany 78 - 57 Japan Bet On: UNDER 144 @ 1.87
SportsBook: 10Bet.com
Bet size: $500
USA - Puerto Rico
What I can say here. Teams played 2 friendlies and USA won both games 116-82 and 114-69. And a key for such big spread was good defence from USA Basketball Project. The scored 44 points from 25 turnovers they were provoked from Puerto Rico guards. USA coaches have enough information Puerto Rico leaders Arroyo and Ayuso and it this pair will be stopped Puerto Rico would not have any chances in this game. And one more factor why I like this pick is that USA have revenge factor. Puerto Rico was a first side who beat Dream Team in Athens. General I don't like to be on favorites side if spread is higher than 10 points but here I would like to risk some money for a lowest handicap we will see in group tournament. Today it's time to show real USA strength and that's why I'm risking with 2.5% of my bankroll.
Bet On: USA (-29) @ 1.87
SportsBook: 10Bet.com
Bet size: $250
Slovenia - Senegal
Senegal is scoring only 55 pts in average in their friendlies, why allowing about 84.5 if their opponents are class above teams like Slovenia today. In defence Slovenians are also good, they allow only 66 points with lower class opponents like Qatar, Poland or Lebanon. While in offense they show good performance by scoring 84.5 points per game. I expect something like 87-56 in this match so I will try Slovenia to cover a spread here. Bet on: Slovenia -23 @ 1.926
SportsBook: 10Bet.com
Bet Size: $375
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