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Argentina - New Zealand
I have read NZ coach interview in preparation period where he said that his teams usually playing in the style of their opponents, because this team have not own style. And looking into their results it looks like true. They can play 125-150 games with Germany, Japan, Australia (in preparation) and they could easily have 170-190 totals if they met Brazil, Phillipines or other more open style opponent. In friendlies games NZ average was 80.2 pts per game but in Japan they lost their offensive power. Probably because of opponents' defence. In last 6 quarters they have found their shot and game by scoring 20.6 pts per quarter. But at the same moment they allowed 20+ points in 12 of 20 quarters so seems that this team can easily receive 85+ points from teams which have much more offensive power than Argentina. Argentina by the way scored 20+ in 16 of 20 quarters,and they are averaging at 25.6 point mark in those 20+ quarters. Tomorrow they will have a lot of easy points from pain because NZ team don't have real centers to close Scola who is a scoring leader currently in Argentina squad. Teams played friendly recently which ended 85-72 for Argentina. Total was only 157 but in 3rd quarter Argentina collected only 13 points and that was a reason of 32 points quarter. So in others 3 quarters their average was 41.5 per quarter. And from all points of view I think that correct line should be about 166 points because both teams should cover individuals total by 2-5 points pts. How many three-pointers will New Zealand score?
BWin offer 7.5 total. NZ is the only team at this World Champs making the same amount of 3 pts shot and 2pts shots. With Argentina they will be forced to shot from 3pt line again because Argentina have big centers Oberto and Scola under basket and it would be extremely difficult for them to score from paint. With Argentina I expect them to make about 29-33 3pts shots and if they will shot with their average of 30% they should score at least 9 pointers. Till now they scored less than 8 3pointers with Germany (7 of 21) and (Angola 7/27). In all other games they scored 9, 8 and 12 3-pointers. And when Dickel returned to the squad they have more depth in 3 pointers scorers line. They have 3-4 shooters on the court during all game so I'll take this with 8/10 confidence as one of the best bets for tomorrow. Predicted score: Argentina 96 - 74 New Zealand Pick: OVER 158.5 @ 1.85 (medium-high confidence) $500 Pick: NZ to score >7.5 3-pointers @ 1.85 (medium-high confidence) $750
Spain - Serbia
Teams played 2 games this summer and Spain won both times 80-65 and 80-62. I did not like Serbia offense in those games where they don't have advantage in the paint, and I hardly doubt that they will play fast basketball tomorrow because it's not their style. They are more used to long-possession basketball with attacking from paint or from 3pt line. Seems that Serbia will miss Ascrabic in that game and that could be crucial for them. Because without power under boards they will have really tough time in scoring. Spain is more organized team on both ends of the floor and they should not have problems in offense. But I doubt that they will score 85+ points simply because Serbia would give them them to score those easy baskets they got against Angola or Japan. Serbia have size and they know how to play in defense. I expect Spain will score somewhere in the 76-83 points range while Serbia will get 65-72 points in tomorrow game. Predicted score: Spain 82 - 69 Serbia Pick: UNDER 158.5 (medium confidence) $500 Bookie: BWIN I also like Lithuania and Slovenia ML because both teams are better than their opponents the only problem I see here is that both squad don't show stable game during this Championship.
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