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Euroleague Week 12 Picks: Thursday PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alleks   
Thursday, 17 January 2008
I don't have time to write long previews for all 8 matches so I'll try to be short.
Cibona - Maccabi Elite
Maccabi are much better these days that they were in the first phase. With Vujcic back into roster they have very good rotation and long bench. Also they defended well in last few games and this could lead them into the win today. Cibona is good home team but this year they are not looking very well even at home. Motivation factor is on both sides and honestly speaking I don't see how Cibona is going to win this game. Maccabi is right favorite of this game and 1.50 and higher for Maccabi to win is worth a try.

Pick: Maccabi @ 1.51

Zalgiris Kaunas - CSKA Moscow
Supermatch in Kaunas. All tickets were sold in 2 hours so atmposhere in the gym will be fantastic. Zalgiris proved that they can do miracles when playing at home and today they will fight until last second. But again I want to say that Zalgiris is a lucky team. They are not showing anything special in their game, M.Brown is their magicman and that's all. Close Brown and Zalgiris will be much weaker. Sure M.Brown will be supermotivated today against his former club but CSKA have very strong guard-defense and this may can kill Zalgiris today.

It's very hard game to predict at least for me. I think that -6.5 is fair handicap for this match but -5.5 looks better if we think about market in general. I hold CSKA as much better team than Zalgiris but they also have some problems currently in their game. They still achieve needed result in most of their games but their game is not so impressive as it was one year ago. Also Savrasenko will miss entire season, and Smodish is out.

Good game to watch but not to bet.

Prokom Trefl Sopot - Olympiakos
No bet game for me. Even don't to waste time for this match.

Panathinaikos - Chorale Roanne
Total line moved from 162 to 165 points. And this is right direction. PAO accepted Roanne style of play away from home and I don't see reasons why they should not accept it again. They have much more scoring options that Roanne and with no pressure for both sides this game can easily go over 170 points.

Real Madrid - F.C. Barcelona
El'derby classico. Big match, already 3rd for these teams this year. First 2 Barcelona won comfortably (73-62 and 84-65) but this time this can be different story. Both teams with full rosters and I expect great game here. Real at home is a killing machine usually but Barca is difficult opponent for them. One of the reason is that Real can't stop their offense. Barca scored more than 70 in 7 of last 8 games. So if Real wants to win this game they should play better in offense where they failed both times this season against Barca. At home I expect Real to score around 78-85 points while Barca again should score a bit more than 70 points. Maybe this pick is not logical looking into h-2-h stats this year but I will try it because the only  was how Real can win this one is to score more than 80 points.

Pick: Over 148.5

Tau Ceramica - Union Olimpija
One sided game here.. Olimpija looking awful and I see only one possible outcome here. Tau will trash them but 17 points handicap is not the pick I like to bet.

Virtus Bologna - Montepaschi Siena
Another derby but I don't know how this injury-troubled Virtus can fight against Montepaschi which is going into this game after first loss in Italian league. Siena should dominate here and dictate scenarion. No bet game for me here.

Brose Baskets - Fenerbahce Ulker
Here is a game where I see value. Brose is very motivated to win this game and coach feels that his team is capable of winning this game. They had chances in Turkey but lost in the last minute. I believed them in away match but did not handicap because of away factor but now I see the almost same handicap on Brose at home. And Fenerbahce is not in optimal conditions because Bogdan Tanjevic also has questions about his lineup, with rebounding king Mirsad Turkcan suffering from the flu, which has caused him to miss practice all week, and Gasper Vidmar dealing with back pain, though both could suit up in the end. However centers Semih Erden and Oguz Savas are still out. Also I have read that Mrsic is ill but it's not confirmed information.

All in one I see Brose as a 50/50 candidate to win this game so all over 2.20 have value. I will take handicap and ML here.

Pick: Brose (+6), Brose to win
 
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