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Aris vs. Lietuvos Rytas
Match preview Two teams dreaming of advancing to the Quarterfinal Playoffs, but needing help from others meet on Wednesday when Aris TT Bank hosts Lietuvos Rytas at the Alexandrio Melathron in Thessaloniki, Greece. Both Aris and L. Rytas could still climb up to second place in Group E and reach the playoffs, but first need for the undefeated group winner, Tau Ceramica, to defeat Fenerbahce Ulker in Wednesday’s other Group E encounter. If that happens, L. Rytas would finish second if it beats Aris or loses by 5 points or fewer. Aris would need for Fener to lose and to blow out L. Rytas by more than 30 to climb to second place. The biggest impact for L. Rytas could be the return from injury of big man Marijonas Petravicius, who was sidelined for a month with a foot injury. Petravicius will suit up and could see limited action. Both teams have committed many turnovers and are amongst the teams with the most points allowed in the Top 16, however L. Rytas is has proven to be a much better shooting team. Aris will need to dramatically increase its defense – as well as its scoring ability – to have a chance of not only winning, but doing it by enough points to advance. Because of the needed margin, Aris is likely to pull out all the stops, including playing extra aggressive from the start. If L. Rytas can hold its own in the first half, it would likely break Aris’s spirits and win the game, but if Aris can open up a big early margin, the pressure would mount for both teams and anything could happen.
Betting analysisTeams played 3 times already this year but Rytas was better team all 3 times but 2 of 3 games were played where Rytas is playing with much more confidence. Away from home Rytas won 5 games however was close to win all 9 games. But from other side Rytas had only 1 easy win over Milan in week 1 while some others wins over Cibona, Maccabi, Le Mans and Aris were get in very hard matches. All in one all we can expect here from Rytas is another thriller for club fans. As for odds and handicaps I think that bookmakers set lines correctly because Rytas usually can't dictate its own tempo during whole 40 minutes to win games easy, while Aris at home always fighting until last seconds. So -4.5 Rytas handicap looks fair for me, sure maybe it is worth to back Rytas with odds over 1.60 but this is not a type of bets I like to place because in the long term it's very hard to make profit on such bets. So Rytas to win is good bet for TV-pick but not for long-term success.
As for over/under line I see some advantage over the line here. Bookmakers set line at 157.5-158 and it looks correct if we look into last Rytas games against fast tempo & offensive minded Fenerbahce, Tau Ceramica, Zalgiris. Aris is not offensive machine with only 75.5 points in average per season. They don't have many scoring players and I think that Trifunovic will try to use this weakness by pressing guards Aris again. Massey will be forced to overcome Petravicius-Anisimovas defense. Rytas learned that they can survive in offense without Petravicius so now they will feel much more comfortable with Petravicius playing more in defense than in offense. Also big man return to the field should slow down game tempo a bit. I think that 77 points on Aris is too high total for this team taking into consideration that Rytas defensive level is much lower (around 71-75 pts). On other side Rytas offense is looking much better now but Aris can defend under 80 points mark very well too.
Prediction: I see very close match here between 2 teams knowing each other very well. I am not sure that game winner will be decided early most probably everything should be decided somewhere in the 2nd half. My favorite is Rytas because they have better defense and better defense than greeks but away from home they struggle to get easy wins. So my prediction is something around 150 points and Rytas winning in the end by 5-7 points.
Predicted score: Aris 73 - 78 Lietuvos Rytas
Picks: Rytas to win @ 1.66 Betfair , under 158 @ 1.95 PinnacleSports
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Fenerbahce Ulker vs. Tau Ceramica Match preview Fenerbahce Ulker aims to earn a spot in the Quarterfinal Playoffs when it hosts Tau Ceramica in the Top 16, Group E finale on Wednesday at the Ibdi Ipekci Sports Hall in Istanbul. While Tau, the only remaining undefeated team in the Top 16, has already clinched first place in the group and with it home-court advantage in the best-of-three playoffs, Fener is in a dogfight with two other teams, Lietuvos Rytas and Aris TT Bank for the remaining quarterfinal ticket. The Turkish champs’ destiny is in its own hands, since a win will send head coach Bogdan Tanjevic’s troops through. However if Fener, which is only 4-5 at home this season, loses, then it will turn to the simultaneous game between L. Rytas and Aris and pray that Aris wins by between 6 and 30 points to finish second by virtue of a three-way tiebreaker. If L. Rytas win, or Aris wins by fewer than 6 or more than 30 points, Fener drops to third and will not move on. Tau cruised to an easy win in its highest scoring game of the season when it last faced Fenerbahce last month, 103-84 in Vitoria, Spain. Pablo Prigioni dished 7 assists as Tau had seven scorers in double figures that night. Tau has battled injuries throughout the Top 16, but head coach Neven Spahija should have a full squad for this encounter. Meanwhile Fener has dropped a pair of close games in back-to-back weeks. One of the team’s strengths has been its bench, with Tarence Kinsey emerging as a strong scoring threat and Omer Asik developing into a force in the paint on both ends of the floor. Still Willie Solomon remains Fener’s on-court leader and main offensive weapon. One of the secrets to Tau’s success is hat while leading the Top 16 in scoring with 90.2 points per game, it has committed the second fewest turnovers in the competition. The spirited hosts will try to change that as much as possible. There are reasons to consider both teams as favorites: Tau has the experience, scoring prowess and will want to remain undefeated in the Top 16, while Fener has its back to the wall, and brings youth and depth that could work together in a critical game. The expectations are that this game will go to the wire with no result being a surprise at this point. Betting analysisHere absolutely all depends on Tau motivation to help Aris and Rytas. I have read that Tau president and coach want to win all left games now when team is in full roster, but it's hard to say with 100% confidence that they will die for a win today. If they do Tau to win @ 2.40 represents huge value because Tau Ceramica is all sides better team than Fenerbahce. But without motivation everything is possible but anyway I think that level line would look more correct than those -3 on "motivated" Fenerbahce. Also turkish team are know of their ability to lose deciding games and that they can't play under pressure so really I don't see any reasons to put Fenerbahce such favorite to win this battle.
As for total line I think that we can try to pick over here. Because both teams have huge 3-point shooting ability (8.5 3-pointers per game for each time) and also both team like to play fast in offense. Fenerbahce scoring 80+ points in 70% of home games this year and this trend is very strong in my opinion and we can follow it here because if Turkish team wants to win this game they must score more than 80 points and the main reason of this is Tau offensive performance. These days Tau Ceramica looks really unstoppable in offense where they score 79+ points in every game (without King's cup) since loss to CSKA on January 23rd. Their current offensive scoring is 85.5 pts per game and for them it is not important where they are playing at home or away. So looks like both teams tend to score 80+ points and to decide a winner they should score at least 163 points together.
Prediction: Tau will play relaxed and this could make them unstopable in defense and more relaxed in offense. It's hard to predict turkish team mentality but as for me TAU offensive skills will prevail here over Turkish team defensive schemes and Tau will show that they are a top class team by making 6-0 in Top-16.
Predicted score: Fenerbahce 82 - 89 Tau Ceramica
Pick: Over 162 @ 1.76 Bet365.com
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Partizan Igokea vs. Panathinaikos
Match preview A compelling battle for one of the last tickets to the Quarterfinal Playoffs takes place at Pionir Arena in Belgrade, Serbia, on Wednesday when up-and-coming Partizan Igokea hosts Panathinaikos. The two teams enter the game tied for second place in Group D with 3-2 and only the winner will advance, while the loser goes home. The teams have met three times this season with the reigning Euroleague champs winning each time, but by a combined total of 7 points. Twice Partizan had the final ball and a chance to win it, but could not get a good shot off against the Panathinaikos defense. The battles between these teams are always compelling, in part because the Greens’ head coach, Zeljko Obradovic, got his start as a player at Partizan and later guided the club to its only Euroleague crown in 1992. This game promises to be a fascinating battle and not only because of the high stakes. The three previous thrillers this season – not to mention two exciting games last season and another decided by 1 point the year before – show how well these teams know each other. Moreover, the teams have made the needed adjustments so that no player has found a way to shine in all three games. The best performers in the series for Partizan have been center Nikola Pekovic with 16.7 points and 9.7 rebounds, and point guard Milt Palacio and swingman Dusan Kecman each with 13.7 points per game against the Greens. Meanwhile the Panathinaikos backcourt foursome of Vassilis Spanoulis, with 12.7 points and 3 assists, Sani Becirovic with 11 points and Dimitris Diamantidis and Sarunas Jasikevicius each with 10 have lead the Greek champs’ attack against Partizan. Any and all of these players could become the focal point for their team in Wednesday’s game. Another player that Partizan must worry itself with is Mike Batiste, who has been unstoppable of late, averaging 19.3 points on 82.1% two-point shooting in his last three games. Partizan’s general gameplan works through Pekovic, with power forward Novica Velickovic and Cedomir Vitkovac feeding off him. Panathinaikos stopped Pekovic last time they met by using a number of big men against him at both ends of the floor, slowing Pekovic on offense and causing him to foul out in just 24 minutes – his lowest minute total of the Top 16. Meanwhile the Serbian champs may need to use their depth to try and keep up with the Greens guards, whose depth allows them to always seem fresh. Ultimately this game has all the fixings of being another thriller to go to the wire. Conventional wisdom would make Panathinaikos the favorite due to its better results over the course of the season, not to mention experience, however anyone whose seen the three games between these sides this season surely understands that a true Euroleague Basketball battle is in store.
Betting analysis
Forget about those 3 games these teams played this season. Now it's a different story for PAO. Now it is their first REAL FINAL of the season where they can't lose and usually when such calibre teams playing such games they play at their best. I agree that PAO results currently don't impress but in my opinion Obradovic feels his team better than any of us who want to predict PAO results. I have read that many punters expect Partizan to give another fight today and win this game. But hey.. let's remember first 3 games. Game 1: PAO leaded +11 points in 2nd quarter but wasted that lead because of concetration loosing. Game 2: Partizan again had 10+ lead but wasted it in 3rd quarter. Game 3: Now Partizan had 10+ lead during whole game but when PAO started to play concetrated they cut the lead and won game by 2 points. And common thing is that PAO won all 3 games as well as 6 of last 7 games between clubs. I think that today PAO will show its real stregth and ambitions because they all sides better team than Partizan and only motivational factors were main reasons why PAO did not win previously games with 5+ points margin. Pioneer gym is always hard court to play but PAO is used for such atmosphere as well as used to holding "must-win" pressure, however I am not sure that young Partizan roster is ready for BIG wins over BIG clubs in BIG games.
Prediction: Partizan will stay close to PAO in first quarter but than PAO will make run which will decide game outcome. Now they would not waste handicap and get this win much easily that line suggest. I think that PAO will close Partizan in the 66-72 range by scoring 76-83 points.
Predicted score: Partizan 67 - 81 Panathinaikos
Pick: Panathinaikos (-4) @ 1.76 Bet365.com
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