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Euroleague Top-16 Week 6: Thursday picks PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alleks   
Thursday, 20 March 2008

Euroleague LogoYesterday I had awful day usually such losing streak could transfer into next day so be careful with your stakes. I don't have time to make long write-ups for today's match so only quick betting analysis of today's matches with possible picks and predicted scores. Hope this info will help to make a right choices.

Olympiacos vs. Real Madrid

PinnacleSports line: Olympiacos 75.5 - 73.5 Real Madrid

Betonbasket.com line: Olympiacos 70.5- 73.5 Real Madrid

Olympiacos won 3 games in a row and public started to believe in them. Bookmakers must take into account public demand in their lines and that's why Olympiacos is a favorite to win this game at most bookmakers. As for me Olympiacos is still very far away from best form. They won 3 games in a row but their level of play is not good. Against Zalgiris they won by playing awful in offense, and Zalgiris did 20 turnovers. Maccabi was better side in Israel but lost concentration in last quarter. Oly have short bench and without bench it would be very hard to control game tempo Real Madrid will offer. I would not be suprised if Real will use offensive tactics today because Olympiacos can't score 85+ points with this roster. (But it is only my opinion because I see Real advantage here and I have nothing agaist under 150.5 here)

Real is not showing spectacular basketball in their last game vs. Maccabi but this team have a lot of experience and knows how to play under pressure. Also for me they are stronger team than Oly without Macas. Don't forget that Real lost only 4 games in 2008 (2 times to Maccabi) and their winning mentality could help them a lot to handle greek public pressure. All in one Real is my favorite here I expected to see them 2.5-3 pts favorites in the line, so odds over 2.0 represents value for me.

Pick: Real Madrid @ 2.00 5/10 PinnacleSports

F.C. Barcelona vs. CSKA

PinnacleSports line: Barcelona 72 - 69.5 CSKA Moscow

Betonbasket.com line: Barcelona 72 - 74 CSKA Moscow

CSKA finally found its rhytm. Papas in good form (5-7 assists every game), Goree was great against Unicaja, Siskauskas started to score 10+ points in every game, Zizis looks good in last games, Holden doing his defensive job great, Smodish is a starting five player, Khriapa started to find its role... Messina & CSKA always playing only for a win especially when they are at their best moments. They proved that there is no "fixed" or "not important" games for them in last few years in Euroleague. They beat Barcelona in OT last year in similar situation like this and today Messina said that he wants to win this game and to help other teams in this group. CSKA really looks much better these days especially in offense where they often struggled in january-march.

Barcelona is great home team but as for me their roster is not build for Euroleague Top-4. CSKA is better & deeper on all positions except center where they miss Savrasenko but have Andersen & Spiegel. And if Barcelona would not stop CSKA offense under 70 points they will meet huge problems in covering handicap here. At least +4 points in Pinnacle or Bet365 looks like value for me because I expect CSKA to win or to lose by less than 5 points. Only possible low motivation reduce my bet to low-medium stakes.

Pick: CSKA +4 @ 1.80 3/10 PinnacleSports

Maccabi vs. Zalgiris

PinnacleSports line: Maccabi 89.5 - 79 Zalgiris

Betonbasket.com line: Maccabi 87.5 - 76 Zalgiris

Time for revenge. Zalgiris proved my words about their weakness and overestimation by public in Top-16 phase. But unfortunately for this game I don't see seriuos advantage over the line in both handicap and total. Maccabi needs 1-point win to secure 1st spot and avoid CSKA in quarterfinals but for sure will try to revenge for 19 pts loss in Kaunas. But if Zalgiris will find its offense today it will be hard to cover such handicap. I expect Maccabi to build 7-15 points lead in the middle of the game and only their real motivation will decide will they cover or not. Unfortunately I can't predict how Zvi Sherf will rotate his roster on last minutes and that's why I can't offer you official pick for this game.

Unicaja vs. Roma

PinnacleSports line: Unicaja 75.5 - 67 Roma

Betonbasket.com line: Unicaja 77 - 69 Roma

Roma looks very unstable away from home and it will be very hard for them to get a win in Malaga where Unicaja don't lose since Dec 2006. Unfortunately Unicaja also have problems for this game. C.Cabezas again injured, Berny quiestionable but will play I think. Unicaja needs this a win and I think they will get it but Roma showed their character in all away games except 3 aways losses to Roanne, Fenerbahce and Barcelona. Very hard game to predict for me, winner is know but scenario is unpredictable for me.

 GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR PICKS

 
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