Match Preview

Zalgiris Kaunas will look to stay alive in the battle for a spot in the Quarterfinal Playoffs when it hosts red-hot Olympiacos Piraeus on Thursday night at S.Darius and S Girenas Sports Center. Much has changed as far as these teams’ outlooks since they last met two weeks ago. Heading into that game, Zalgiris was coming off a convincing 19-point home win over Maccabi Tel Aviv, while Olympiacos had started the Top 16 0-2. However the Reds scored an 86-84 overtime win behind another stellar performance from Lynn Greer and Marc Jackson. Since then, Olympiacos picked up a big win in Tel Aviv to improve to 2-2 in Group G and Zalgiris lost at home to Real Madrid to slip to 1-3. Now the Lithuanian champs know that another loss at home will end their quarterfinal chances. The game features an interesting point guard matchups between the league’s hottest player, Greer, who leads the Top 16 with 22.5 points per game and has won MVP of the week honors twice in the last four weeks, and this season’s Euroleague assist king, DeJuan Collins. Since Panagiotis Giannakis has taken over as Olympiacos head coach, Greer and Jackson have scored nearly half the team’s points, with a different third option every week. Two weeks ago it was Qyntel Woods and last week it was at different times Ioannis Bourousis, Panagiotis Vasilopoulos and Georgios Printezis. Meanwhile Zalgiris has enjoyed a balanced scoring attack with five players averaging double figures in points. Jonas Maciulis had joined Marcus Brown and Marko Popovic as an elite scoring option, while Mamadou N’Diaye has become a serious factor in the paint at both ends of the floor. The duel between N’Diaye and Jackson in the paint promises to be not only interesting, but one of the factors that the outcome of the game could hinge on. Another will be how Maciulis or Paulius Jankunas handle Woods. Zalgiris gets to the free-throw line and shoots more threes than any other team in the Top 16, two things the Reds’ defense will need to guard against. A good offensive night for Zalgiris, which is 7-2 at home this season, makes it the clear favorite. However Olympiacos’s winning spirit showed last week as it climbed back from a 14-point second-half deficit to win. Those factors combined promise to make this game an exciting battle that could well come down to how each team’s star point guard, Greer or Collins, performs in the last minute.

Betting preview

I don't want to predict winner here. Zalgiris showed their real strengt last week with Real and now they have another big match. This time I think that Zalgiris is capable of beating greeks but I rarely go against myself. I still think that Zalgiris is not a playoff material, but Oly without Macas also is not a top-team. So in my eyes today we will see 2 equal teams but slight advantage is on Zalgiris side because of home factor & longer and more productive bench. But this is a BIG game and coach role is very important in such games and unfortunately for Zalgiris fans they have weakest coach in Top-16... I hope that Brown & Collins will coach their team better than they did against Real and this will help Zalgiris to win this game but I would recommend to bet on this.

As for betting oportunity I advice to take closer look into total line. These teams played 3 games so far and all were over 160 points. But last game was only 144 pts game after 40 minutes. Also in last game teams did around 156 possesions and 3 quarters were under 36 points... Olympiacos game plan is again to avoid fast tempo, defend strongly and stay concentrated for 40 minutes and try to win a game in the end. Game is important for both sides so defense will be important for both and we should not expect here a lot of risks. In such type of games every possession counts so low-tempo game is expected by me here.

As for numbers I think that 77-74.5 looks more fair than 79-76.5. Oly defense works under 75 points perfectly usually while offensivly they can't score 90 points with help from the bench. Zalgiris on other side have impressive 84.5 pts per game at home but in low-tempo defensive style games they had 75:69 against Montepaschi, 69:83 with Real and 60:88 with CSKA. So there is good chance to see 147.5-152 pts game in Kaunas today while 156 total looks a bit too high at least for me. Maybe I am wrong but this is most logica selection in this game.

Prediction: Very close game is expected here with many defensive work from both sides. But Zalgiris have better offensive line and have more chances to win this game in any scenario, but I expect to see low-scoring battle.

Pick: Under 157 @ 1.83 5/10 Bet365.com

As for other games I can't predict them at all because I don't know real motivation of some clubs, and can't read what tactics coaches will choose. So only some TV-picks from me here.

PAO - Montepaschi
PAO is very strange these days. I don't know if they are ready to play at their best level today to win this game by 9+ points because if they want to win this game by needed margin they should play better than they did in last 7 matches. In first game teams did only 148 posessions so probably Montepaschi will play low tempo again to save points difference but 150 total line is not looking atractive for me here. Handicap line is very dangerous as for me because Montepaschi will seek for 4-7 pts loss while PAO will try to win this game by 9 pts at least so some foul tactics is available at the of the game and only God knows who will cover.

TV-Pick: Montepaschi +7.5

Efes - Partizan
Not important game for Partizan. For them all should be decided in last round with PAO. They must win that game to get into playoffs. For Efes playoffs is not a goal in my opinion because they have nothing to do there with such roster but they will try to win this game at all costs to save club prestige and to revenge for loss in Serbia. Sure it will be very hard but I think turkish team is capable of doing this against young serbian squad purcuiting only one goal here: not to lose with 13+ margin. I expect Efes to win by 6-10 pts but I can't recommend this selection as a pick because 1) Efes have huge missmatches with Partizan roster 2) I hate Turkish teams :)

Tv-Pick: Efes (-3)

Real Madrid vs. Maccabi Elite
Here I can't predict what tactic will be choosen by Plazza. Real needs a win and at home they will complete this goal for sure. Maccabi downed them by 19 points in Israel and Real will revenge today. But according to some news from the club there are no revenge thoughts. They simply wants to win this one and I can't bet on them in such situation. I have seen many times how Real have 18 pts marging in 3 quarter but than allow opponents to cut it to 8-10 difference. At some certain moments Real should find a way to build 12-15 pts advantage to let Maccabi know that they are capable of beating them by as many points as they want but I can't predict Real motivation in 4th quarter in this scenario so skip for me. But I expect to see Real win by 8-12 pts.

TV-Pick: Real (-7.5)