Maccabi Elite vs. Olympiacos

Olympiacos looks afwul. Coach changed did not help them. No bench, no Macas, no offense.. they plays much better in defense but looks like players can't play low tempo game in offense. Also I am not sure that Yannakis is good coach for this Oly roster. His basketball model is old-fashioned basketball with defense and low tempo offense but Greek NT was downed at EC last year, and looks that he needs to think about that basketball is very dynamic games and team should be flexible if want to win games. Today they will need to be flexible because defense would help them in Tel Aviv. I see Maccabi as clear favorite to win this game but handicap is right. Maccabi in low tempo game will win too but I don't by how many points. Maybe 12 maybe by 7..

Predicted score: Maccabi 79 - 72 Olympiacos

Lottomatica Roma vs. CSKA Moscow

CSKA is terrible these days. I watched their last 3 games and looks like this is Messina's last year in CSKA... He is great coach but looks like players are used to him, they don't react in hard situations like it was in last 2 seasons under Messina. Sure so many injuries can hurt any team and Messina is not reason of CSKA bad play. He tries to do all what he can but Khriapa can't find his place in this team, Holden is out of form, Siska is again starting to gain its form, but now Langdon is far away from his best conditions. Team don't have good center and that's all killing them on the court. In last game vs. Unicaja CSKA played individually and this is not normal for them. If their problems will continue today I really would not be surpsised with another CSKA loss. But they have secret weapon: Matias Smodis. He is in team and Messina can use him in rotation. This could him to leave Khriapa on bench and make his team game more balanced. CSKA needs to defend very much against Ukic and shooters and if this task will completed they will win quite easy.. But if not expect another thriller.

I expected to see -3.5 on CSKA in Rome but I fear to bet on Roma with +6.5, can't explain why.. maybe because I expect CSKA to win this game and if they do they will around 4-7 points. Over/under line set right maybe 146.5 looks better but if CSKA will defend strong Roma would not score more than 70 points.

Predicted score: Roma 68 - 75 CSKA

Panathinaikos vs. Efes Pilsen

Brrr... what a line... -16 on PAO which lost 4 of last 5 games and was one step of away from losing 5 of 5. Crisis? Yes. Time to trash someone? Maybe yes. Any quarantees? No. Any confidence that PAO will play at it best? No. Efes Pilsen is crap without americans? For sure no.. So why I should bet on this game?

At least handicap outcome is something I can't predict here. PAO will win this game for sure because with 5-6 man rotation you can't win against PAO in Greece. But -16? Efes still finds they way to score 60 points per game and because of low tempo and defensive approach they don't allow their opponents to score over 80. So statistically there is no reason to expect something like 87-62.. but PAO is team full of bad and good surprises. I can't predict the scenario of this game but I think that I know the winner.

Predicted score: Panathinaikos 79 - 66 Efes Pilsen

Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Real Madrid

I know that many of you hold Zalgiris as most impressive team in Euroleague. And you know my position I hate them, I don't think that they deserved to be in playoffs and I hold them as most "luckiest" team in Euroleague. They always play against injury troubled, not-motivated or not-motivated teams. I know that this sounds like excuses for all those lost bets against Zalgiris during whole Euroleague but this is my official position regarding Zalgiris. For sure they are motivated to win this game because it can provide them good promotion chances but if Maccabi will win today against Oly I think that Zalgiris will be out of Top-16 for sure.

Regarding Real I think that Plaza is forcing his team form at this moment of the season. February is a month when ALL BIG CLUBS are forcing their form. (look at CSKA & PAO now). It's to early to play at best level in February because there is big risk to appear in crisis in April-May when most important games are playing. Only results is important for Real coach at this moment of the season and its not important how they were achieved with good level of game or bad (like it was in games vs Zalgiris at home). But Real is a team which can play best basketball when they need this.. and usually they play their best games in BIG AND IMPORTANT games. I am not sure that this game is really important for Real because they have another very important match vs. Unicaja at home this weekend. But vs. Unicaja they are playing only on Sunday so they will have 2 days to recover. Should be enough to take this game in Kaunas seriuosly but to place a bet on Real Madrid in Kaunas I would like to be sure that this is do-or-die game for them. For now I don't see such attitude in their sayings in press. I think that even playing at average level Real will have chances to win this game.

I expekt Real to slow down game tempo and make this game close where class and nerves will become important factor, so maybe under 164 points looks good. As for outcome I don't know. Game should be close and my favorite is Real Madrid. My estimations are 48/52 to real side and bookmakers ruled out the line with 52/48 estimations because of public demand on Zalgiris.. So very small value for me here on Real side and it's not enough to play spanish side.

Predicted score: Zalgiris 78 - 81 Real Madrid