VS

 

Italians were better side in first game and managed to break Turskish team game plan for most of playing time. There were some minutes when Montepaschi started to play in Fenerbahce style and turks managed to take the lead. Later Montepaschi returned to defensive work and after hitting several consecutive shots did a run and won that game.

In Turkey should expect much closer fight but Fenerbahce must find a way how to break Montepaschi defense. Turkish side looks better in rebounding but their main scoring options were closed in first game. This time Fener will play at home and most probably will again score those crazy 3 points shots but for me Montepaschi as team looks more solid because they are more organized and flexible. Also Turkish side looks a bit overpriced because of their win against Lietuvos Rytas and Tau Ceramica. But don't forget that they lost to such team as Aris, Partizan, Rytas also was leading until final seconds.. If Fenerbahce would not play at 120% today I think that they have very few chances to get this one but unfortunately I am not an expert in turkish mentality and often lose my picks when Turkish side is playing.

I would set -4.5 handicap here for Montepaschi here instead of 2.5 pts but I still fear to bet on away side in Turkey.

Prediction: Should a be a close fight but class difference and better defense & tactical flexibility should help Montepaschi to close these series and qualify into Final Four.

Predicted score: Fenerbahce 74 - 79 Montepaschi

Again Olympiacos proved their class. This time they won against CSKA in Moscow! Olympiacos was really good in that game, they played like a team with solid defense but honestly speaking I have not seen real CSKA for 35 minutes. I am not sure what happened with them but looks like something is not clicking inside the team. There are many rumours and strange things around the team. One of them is that Messina will leave team after this season, another is that Messina is thinking about his brother more than about this series (really sad story here but it is true that his brother has seriuos problems with health and Messina lives between Russia and Italy). Some players like Goree, Khriapa can't find their role on the field and some can't produce points (Holden & Langdon). Also in Game 1 Messina did some mistakes with rotation, but main reason of loss in my opinion is bad mentality in first half and hufe defensive mistakes by CSKA... But this season CSKA already proved that they can handle criticism pressure well and play 2 different games in short period of time.

Today I expect to see much more motivated and concetrated CSKA especially in defense where they failed in first game. They should defend much harder than they did in Moscow and I doubt that Oly again will score those easy points they had in first game, as well as repeat 10/20 performance from 3-point line. If CSKA will defend under 70 points as they usually do in their game they should have more than 50% chances to win this game.

On other side greeks will play at home where they very hard to beat for any team. I think that will try again to slow down game tempo to avoid offensive-oriented match. Their defense was very good in last few weeks and in such important and emotional game defense should be again on the top. By the way in first game teams did only 140 possession and scored 150 points only because of high shooting percentage.

Prediction: Mental approach of this game will be very important. If CSKA will show their real level of game they should tie series and I would not be suprised to see double-digit win in this scenario, if not that it should be game similar to Oly-Real but it still hard to predict a winner here. CSKA looks like a right favorite here but if CSKA will show the same level of performance like the did in first game I see no value in backing them @ 1.74. I expect low-tempo game with very hard defense from both sides and my total expectation are around 134-140 so I will try to pick Under a main bet here once again, while CSKA to win is my second option but with lower stake.

 

Predicted score: Olympiacos 64 - 69 CSKA

Pick: Under 144 @ 1.86 5/10 Bet365.com or Betfair
Pick: CSKA (-0.5) @ 1.83 2/10 StanJames

In game both team missed many easy shots and game ended with 140 points. I would like to notice that Partizan tried to run after rebound but did not manage to score easy points in Spain. Looks like for 2nd game their game plan will be the same: to improve offensive performance because if want to win against Tau Ceramica you should score more than 80 points and hold Tau under 85 points. From 24 home games Partizan never scored less 72 points, while scored 78+ points in 22 of 24 game, and 80+ pts were scored in 20 of 24 games. At home their offense works much better than away from home where they often score less than 70 points and taking into consideration that Partizan should try to increase game tempo I see 78-78 total line as a minimum total here.

Prediction: I am not sure about picking a winner here because Partizan at home looks very solid this season, but I think that game have very good chances to end with 158-165 total. I don't agree with bookmaker's decision and public demand to lower the total from 157.5 to 154 pts line for the Game 2 because after watching all games this one looks like fastest.

Predicted score: Partizan 83 - 79 Tau Ceramica

Pick: Over 153.5 @ 1.91 5/10 Betway

In game 1 was unlucky with my under154 pick because team scored 12 points in last 20 seconds and ruined my pick. But after watching game I have feeling that this game can't end with 2 games. Maccabi was good in away matches so far but Barcelona at home should be able to tie series. They were in a game in Tel Aviv even when some important players like Pepe Sanchez, Jaka Lakovic and Alex Acker were off the game (10 points scored together) but at home they should be more confident. Also Barcelona was looking very good in defense during whole game but not in most important parts of it.

Maccabi was better side in important moment of the game but they played at home where they always play with confidence. Now they will play in Barcelona where only 1 team manage to win in this Euroleague season. Some Maccabi players are not confidend away from home and I think that sooner or later Maccabi will be killed by Barcelona run and this series will travel to Israel for deciding 3rd game as many experts have predicted.

Unfortunately bookmaker did very fair line for this game because -5 looks very solid handicap taking into account that Barcelona like to waste big leads and win games in the end by 4-6 points. Maccabi is not an ACB outsider, they always plays until the end and Barcelona's stupidness is main danger here if we talk about handicap.

Prediction: Barcelona at home will play faster and should score some easy points and those points will be deciding factor here. Defensive approach of first game should reappear again in this series. I hope that Barcelona would not waste 8+ pts lead during a game and in the end will win by 5-8 points.

Predicted: Barcelona 81 - 74 Maccabi

Pick: Barcelona (-4) @ 1.71 3/10 Bet365.com

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