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After losing 3 of 4 picks yesterday my confidence is a bit down now but anyway I must try 2 picks for today's matches. Other 3 matches in Istanbul, Barcelona and Thessaloníki don't represent any value for me so let's concentrate on 2 games and hope that Lady Luck will be with us today.
 VS 
Maccabi Elite Tel Aviv - KK Cibona VIP Zagreb
Maccabi Elite: Maccabi Elite is still without Nikola Vujcic, due to miss at least three more games, and without Tal Burstein, who may miss the entire season, both with knee problems. Marcus Fizer had 15 points for Maccabi during last week's loss to Unicaja, while Will Bynum added 14. Cibona: Larry Ayuso took over with 30 points on 15-for-15 free throws in Cibona'a 100-91 home win against AJ Milano. Sam Hoskin added 18 points and 8 rebounds in that game. Goran Vrbanc did not play and is once again questionable this week. Total line have raised from 158.5 to 162.5 during this week and I must agree with this line movement. More of that I think that it still a bit lower than should be and represent small value if you have account at bookmakers with total around 160.5 points. Maccabi always was an offensive minded team with defensive ability. But usually that defense is visible in games against low-tempo defensive minded teams. So far they played such teams in this group and that's why their average total was only 153.5 points per game. But today against offensive minded Cibona I expect to see uptempo game style because both teams like to organize their offense fast and long possesions is not their strength side. In my opinion this game total should be calculatied not by team averages but by expected game tempo. Cibona should force Maccabi to play their uptempo offensive basketball and I am pretty sure that Maccabi would accept this style. This weekend they won against Jerusalim Hapoel in offensive manner 95-85 and similar score is expected by me here. Maybe not so high scoring but something around 168-172 is achievable for these teams. So my line for this game would be 85.5-80 and this is 4.5-5 higher than bookmakers total. It is recommended to browse different bookmakers to find lowest total for Maccabi - Cibona match. 160-162 points total is worth for medium-low stake. While totals under 160 represents better value and worth medium stake. Prediction: Maccabi 89 - 83 Cibona Pick: Over 161.5 @ 1.90 Expekt  VS
Lemans - Unicaja
Le Mans: Coach Vincent Collet has a full squad available for its game against Unicaja. Luka Bogdanovic had 21 points on 5-for-7 three-pointers against Efes Pilsen last week. Sam Clancy (14.5 ppg., 7.8 rpg.) stays rock solid as Le Mans' main reference around the basket. Unicaja: Marcus Haislip joins long-term sidelined Alfonso Sanchez in the injury list due to a leg injury. Haislip is expected to be sidelined for 2 weeks. Carlos Cabezas led Unicaja to a big win against Maccabi with 21 points in just 23 minutes. Lemans is currently in top form and showing really good basketball. They won 3 games in French league and were one step away from winning all their games in Euroleague. This game is very important for LeMans. V.Collett said "If we don’t win this one, it’s almost over for top 16. The importance of this game is obvious. Unicaja is really good and comfortable in the Euroleague, but has a lot of trouble in its own national championship. We are waiting for a high-intensity, tough game against a team that loves to run and provoke a lot of fouls. We absolutely have to control their drives to the basket." I absolutely agree with him and we should expect Lemans fighting for this game until last seconds. They have good defense which is allowing only 70 points per game and taking into consideration Unicaja's offensive problems in away games this could be a decisive factor today. Unicaja lost all their away games in ACB league and already lost to Aris in Euroleague. Also their motivation for this game is questionable for me because they have very important game this Sunday in domestic league where they should climb in the table as soon as possible, so Scariolo will rotate his roster thinking about next game and not about this one, especially if Lemans will build an early lead. Also I don't like Unicaja's offense against defensive minded teams like Lemans which is also very athletic with so many americans in the roster. This year Lemans lost 7 games this season and maximum losing margin was only 6 points. Today I expect Lemans to win their first game because of higher motivation, home court, good form and some injury troubles in the Unicaja's roster. Maybe they will lose this game but I really can't see confident away win here. Most bookies have cut Lemans spread to +3.5 points or even to +2.5 points (what is fair line) but as usual in such situation I refer to Bet365 which is sleeping longer than any other bookmaker and more of that they allow to buy margin points. Prediction: Lemans 74 - 68 Unicaja Pick: Lemans +5 @ 1.76 5/10 Bet365 Related content New articles on this topic:
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