Euroleague
Euroleague Top-16. Week 7. Thursday Picks
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- Details
- Category: Euroleague Betting Picks
- Published on 14 February 2013
- Written by Alleks
After one week off Euroleague returns to our evening schedule. Today we have 5 really good matches to watch and plenty of oppurtunities to invest money. This time will I will step away from flat basis which I used previous weeks because there positions which I like more and positions which I like less, and the value is different too.
CSKA - Panathinaikos
A pair of Euroleague powerhouses that have combined for four of the last six Euroleague titles meet again in the Russian capital when CSKA Moscow hosts Panathinaikos Athens in Group E on Thursday. The two teams are tied for third place in Group E, each with a 4-2 record, which adds more anticipation to this great showdown. Panathinaikos beat CSKA in the 2007 and 2009 Euroleague title games. Their last matchup was at last year's Final Four, in which CSKA beat the Greens 66-64 to reach the final.
CSKA official site saying that V.Khriapa is definetely out today with an injury he got this weekend. It is better to wait for TV-transmission to be 100% sure that he is out before placing a bet. Because Khriapa is probably the most important player in this team. He is doing a lot of unseen work here, giving the assists, closing zone in defense, doing steals and he is a mental leader of this team and its captain finally. Without him CSKA will need to find new way of playing on both ends of the floor and this could be a big problem, because when Teodosic loosing its head (as it often happens against PAO) everything might happen with CSKA. Also Weems is still not in top form after injury and he missed match again this weekend..
PAO on other side won Greek cup this weekend but they are with full roster here and is looking quite well by names only. Unfortunately game quality is not at best level... and this is the only reason why I am keeping my stakes low here. Actually PAO roster has the same quality and better depth, but they are not looking like a ready-to-go-everywhere and away from home they already showed us some bad suprises. But playing at its normal level I believe they can keep this game close if Khriapa is out.
Pick: PAO +9 @ 1.90 3/10 Sportingbet
Anadolou Efes - Real Madrid
In a high-profile battle for first place in Top 16 Group E, Anadolu Efes Istanbul welcomes Real Madrid on Thursday in the Game of the Week. Madrid is the only undefeated team left in the Top 16 and leads Group E at 6-0, but Efes is on a five-game winning streak - its best Euroleague run since the 2004-05 season. Madrid has a 6-1 road record against Efes and has beaten its opponent in Istanbul in each of the last four seasons. Efes's only home win against Madrid came in 2004.
In my opinion it is quite risky to against Efes Pilsen in such situation. Turkish teams usually fails to win such game against Spanish team but here we have different situation. Efes still in full control of their playoff place and they can play without pressure against Real. If they win they are almost in playoff, if they lose everything looks still quite ok for them. But their chance here is to defend hard and they are doing this pretty well on their home court.
The same "pretty well" I can say about Madrid defense which is working under 75 points in last month or even more. They clearly improved their defense and Efes Pilsen offense is quite soft and predictable to stop it on average day. Offensively Real is very stable but it should not be easy to score many points on Efes home court.
I expect to see Efes in 68-76 points, and Real should finish in 71-81 range. In the end I expect Real to win by something like 73-79, but 139-157 points expectation gives us plenty of room for under bet.
Pick: Under 154.5 @ 1.90 4/10 Expekt
Maccabi - Barcelona
Group F only features on Thursday game, but it’s one not to miss as superpowers Maccabi Electra Tel Aviv and FC Barcelona Regal go head-to-head in Nokia Arena. Despite their frequent Final Four appearances, Maccabi and Barcelona have met nine times over the past five seasons, but only in the Top 16 or playoffs stages. Barcelona has won seven of those games, including the last six. Both teams come in with positive momentum, having each won their domestic cup competitions last week. It will be a special return to Tel Aviv for Barcelona guard Sarunas Jasikevicius, who led Maccabi to back-to-back Euroleague crowns in his only two seasons there, 2003-2005.
It does not looks that Barcelona is going to Tel Aviv to win a game at all costs. They are first in a group, they have good schedule and with a loss they will motivate Maccabi to take away points from their Siena, Olympiacos and Khimki. Sure, if Maccabi will play as they did against Khimki or Siena, Barcelona will take victory here but really don't expect Barcelona to have some special motivation in this match. Oleson can't play until next week, Navarro could see limited time after King's Cup and Barcelona bench could see more minutes.
Maccabi on other side needs to win this match to return into real playoff battle and according to Israeli press they are fully concentrated on this game since last week. The problem is that Maccabi missing Eliahu and M.Tomas was cut off. They have only James-Planinic-Medly to cover PF and C positions and Barcelona has huge selection there (but all of them are not in super form). So the only chance of Maccabi is to defend well and this is a task they can especially playing at home.
I expect average pace here with a lot of defensive job especially from Maccabi side. Barcelona defensively still looks very solid too and with Maccabi up and downs in offense I don't expect this game to be a high scoring. My system see Maccabi scoring 64-74 points range and Barcelona in 68-74 points range. There is good chance that game will end in 134-148 points and under looks promising here. And I will try small bet on Maccabi +4.5 because they need to win and playing at it best level they can win or lose by few points.
Pick: Under 148.5 @ 1.90 5/10 Bet365
Pick: Maccabi +4.5 @ 1.95 3/10 Pinnacle
Brose Baskets - Zalgiris
A critical battle in Top 16 Group E right before reaching its halfway mark is expected in Bamberg, Germany, where Brose Baskets takes on Zalgiris Kaunas on Thursday. Brose Baskets is looking for its first win, but Zalgiris has not won a Top 16 road game since 2004, losing 23 games in a row. Zalgiris is tied for fifth place at 2-4 and needs a win to rejoin the playoffs race. Bamberg would need a miracle comeback if it adds another loss. Zalgiris has a 4-0 record against Bamberg and beat it twice last season.
Zalgiris is absolutely concentrated on this away schedule. They MUST win this game if they want to be in playoffs and I am sure they will win. They have clear advantage on every position, their have much better front court, more offensive solutions and the most important they have the defensive pressure to stop Brose offensive flow. The only questions for me here is the difference. Line has moved to 7 points from 4.5-5 and this is big move considering the fact that Zalgiris won just 2 away game with higher difference this season in Euroleague.
Zalgiris handicap moved too much but there is still a good bet on Zalgiris to score over 78 points with small stakes. Brose allowed 78+ in ALL their home games and Zalgiris according to my estimations should finish with 80+ points. I expect Zalgiris to win 82 to 69.
Pick: Zalgiris over 78 points @ 1.85 4/10 Expekt
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