Euroleague
Euroleague Top-16. Week 3 Picks. Wednesday
So we have 3rd week of Top-16 stage and we begin with 3 games this evening. I expect all these games to be quite interesting for tv-watching but unfortunately if we talk about betting value it is not easy to find big mistakes in bookies line. But let's try..
Unics - Emperio Milano
Unics becomes a public team after their road win in Athens. People loves them, they bring money whole season long (9-3 against the spread so far). But are they so good really? For sure they good but don't forget that PAO is not so good as last season, Siena was in huge crisis when played them and Prokom & Olimpija are 2 levels below Euroleague level. Jawai is in Australia for family reasons, Nachbar has debuted in Athens but he is really far far way from good conditions after injury.
The same could be said about Emperio Armani which is losing mostly this year but somehow they are in a race of all competitions this season. First time in their history they are in Top-16, they won against Montepaschi at home after long-long break and they will play at Italian Cup this month. Hairston out for S.Scariolo as well as new signing Bremer who can't play until Week 4. But italians still have Mancinelli, Bouroussis, Cook, Nicholas and Fotsis. Are these guys bad players? I don't think so. They are on the same level (or better) than Unics roster and if they will play as a team and will be stable - they will get their chance. In case of win Milano can enter a playoff race, but I don't know if they really need that playoff (official goal was to enter top-16 stage).
S.Scariolo knows Unics team very well because he played against them many times and I think he has a chance to prepare his team defensively against Unics. If Milano will score their 68 point I expect them to fight for the victory because Milan defensively should hold Unics under 75 points. My line for this match -4.5/140.5 so Milan +7 qualifies for low stake.
Pick: Milan +7 @ 1.99 2/10 Pinnacle
Olympiacos - Efes Pilsen
Turkish team has won 4 of 6 matches in Greece. But in most of those games they were a weaker side. Now they have better roster but they are still hard to predict away from home. Olympiacos is under pressure and needs to win to have realistic chance to fight for playoffs. It is hard to me to back Efes with +4 against Olympiacos because defensively they are not good enough to stop Olympiacos from scoring 80+ points. But offensively I expect Vujanic, Savanovic, Kinsey and Barac to test Olympiacos defense.
Olympiacos usually at home plays agressive basketball and pace of the games goes up. If everything is ok with pace of the game I expect this game to end with over 155 points. Olympiacos expected range 82-86 points and Efes 72-78.
Pick: over 155 @ 1.99 3/10 Pinnacle
Real Madrid - Bilbao
There are games which are better to skip if you don't feel them enough. This one is perfect example. Bilbao is capable of doing a suprise in Bilbao but mostly this depend on Real Madrid. If Real will get back their form I see high scoring match with Real winning around 10 points. But if something will go wrong this could defensive battle with Bilbao winning in the end. For me it is clear nobet.
Euroleague