Euroleague
Euroleague Top-16. Week 1. Picks for Thursday
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Let's have some fun today with low medium picks. This means that in most matches I see games in the same way as bookies see them but I see small advantage over the current line. Be careful with stakes because these picks are not bankers for sure. I hope to get 3 out 5 picks to get a least small profit but surely I hope to have 5-0 or 4-1.. :)
Zalgiris - Maccabi
I expect high paced match here with a lot of possesions made by both teams. But the problem is that Zalgiris can't score effectively while Maccabi can be very effective offensively especially if team has sloppy defense like Zalgiris has.
I expect to see Maccabi in the 79-87 points range and Zalgiris around 76 points (+- 3 points). Hard to decide about handicap which is set more or less fair but Maccabi to score over 80 points looks interesting for low-medium stakes.
Pick: Maccabi over 80.5 @ 1.85 3/10 Expekt
Unicaja - Real Madrid
Unicaja without Freeland will have a very difficult task this evening against Real on defensive end. Real will make their usual inside-out game in half court and speedy counter attacks because they will control defensive rebound. I see Real scoring 84-88 points and Unicaja will be happy to score 81 points but most probably will struggle on offensive end too. Expected score 76-84 for Real Madrid.
Pick: Real Madrid (-5.5) @ 1.95 3/10 Pinnacle
Armani Jeans - Panathinaikos
Here I expect low paced game with defensive mentality because offensively both teams tends to struggle against organized defense. Low pace + low percentage make this game total expectation between 136 and 147 points.
As for the outcome I don't see PAO dominating in Milan today. First they are not so good as last season while line is set exactly on the same level and second reason I think that Nicholas and Fotsis will be highly motivated against their ex-team. Also Milan with a win against Panathinaikos might have chances to fight for playoff. Close game expected and I would not be suprised with Milan winning this one,
Pick: under 150.5.5 @ 1.90 4/10 Unibet
Pick: Armani Jeans +5.5 @ 1.95 3/10 Pinnacle
Regal Barcelona - Cantu
Cantu is the slowest team in Euroleague and it will be big suprise for me to see fast paced match here. Most probably game pace will be lower than 155 posessions and according to my analysis Cantu scoring range should be 54-62 points, while Barcelona have to finish in middle 70's (71-79 points expected. Prediction: 75:57 or close to it.
Pick: Under 139 @ 1.95 3/10 Pinnacle
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