Euroleague
Euroleague Week 10. Do or die games
Once again bookies force us to set own estimation about team ratings and power of their home courts. Today we have very hot Euroleague day with 3 thrillers in Cantu, Bilbao and sure the Belgrade.
Bilbao - Caja Laboral
Big brother comes to Bilbao for another basque derby. This is big rivalry in Basque country and everyone know that Caja Laboral is a bigger team. Maybe results tell us that Bilbao is on the same level but in the heads of players and fans everyone take this game as small club playing against big one. Bookies trying to play on our desire to bet on Bilbao which beat Olympiacos at home, Caja Laboral & Fenerbahce away and was second team in ACB league last year. But all I know from my experience tell me to avoid bet on Bilbao this night. At least nobet with Bilbao set as favorite. I would agree to take Bilbao if they would be 3-4 points dogs here but not as 2 points fav.
As for the Caja Laboral it is worth saying that Caja won 15 of 21 games versus Bilbao including a 6-2 record at Bilbao arena. They know how to win such important games and they have players who can be difference makers in such encounters. Surely I talk about Teletovic, San Emeterio and Prigioni.
I see some value in Caja Laboral victory but go with low stakes because advantage over the line is too low to qualify for medium bet.
Pick: Caja Laboral to win @ 2.18 3/10 Pinnacle
Partizan - Armani Jeans Milano
This one is a difficult match to analyze. Italian team had more experienced players but all they are starting five players while Partizan has some advantage on the bench where young serbs can do some damage at Pionner. As for me it is better to skip this game because this match should be a real thriller until the end because Jeans needs to win by 4 and will use foul tactics in case they win by 1-2 points with few secs to go. Don't be surprised with Milan tending to get this match into OT to get a chance to win by 4 points instead of winning one.
Too open match to bet on it in my opinion.
Cantu - Fenerbahce Ulker
Last week I was surprised with Ulker loss to Bilbao at home because they were showing good form before that match. Now Ulker needs to win match badly to qualify for Top-16 stage. Also victory could give them a first place in a group. Omer Onan is only miss for N.Spahija but M.Tomas is back so no problems for rotation but maybe some quality will be missed.
Cantu already qualified but in some kind of crisis. Maybe fatique and injury troubles is the price for qualifiying into Top-16. Scekic is out untl the end of the season, Ortner went to Benetton and Lighty is not with a team anymore. All these players are not very important but overal team form is big question mark for me here.
Ulker needs to win this, they have better players, more motivation and have tons of experience. Also statistically I see Ulker as 3-4 points favorite here and 1.81 for ML looks enough for small stake here.
Pick: Fenerbahce Ulker @ 1.81 3/10 Pinnacle
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