Euroleague
Euroleague Week 10. Stats, Christmas and Greeks
Usually I avoid last round of Euroleague but this time will do an exception. And the reason is not because I am angry on last week losses or want to win money before Christmas simply I one match I see some statistical value, in other friendly character before Christmas together with pace should help us and finally the greeks should show Europe where are they and where is best team in Germany..
Panathinaikos - Brose
Brose still motivated to win in Athens and hope that Zagreb will win in Kaunas. But is that enough to win in Greece? Team of Z.Obradovic remembers well their loss in Bamberg which cost them a race for leadership in their group. Looking back into their match in Moscow I can't say that team played bad. There were looking very good except one player who can't understand that his best days are over and it is time to end his career. I talk about Sarunas Jasikevicius.. In my opinion he ruined everything in 3rd quarter and it was too late to change something. Obradovic wants his team to play all 40 minutes on one level and I think that they have good chance to dominate over the match against Brose.
Statistically it is hard for me to see Brose scoring more that 73 points, while PAO chances to score to finisn in 87-96 points I rate quite high and realistic. I expect PAO to win 93:72 or something close to these numbers.
Pick: Panathinaikos (-11) @ 1.90 4/10 Expekt
Unicaja - CSKA
Friendly match here with more motivation on home side. I expect fast paced entertaining basketball in Malaga where Unicaja scores 74-83 points and CSKA around 80. Gordon, Kirilenko and Vorontsevic are out for CSKA but this not a big problem for them because this year CSKA have very balanced team and can score 76+ points at any court in Europe.
I expect to see both teams finishing over 74 points and 151-168 points scored here and I would set 159.5 line here.
Pick: over 154.5 @ 1.90 4/10 Expekt
Prokom - Montepaschi
Montepaschi again without McCalebb but again with their perfect defense against offensily very poor playing Prokom. Montepaschi still needs to win this match to qualify from 2nd place in this group and I expect them to be well prepared after missing Italian league this weekend. Prokom will have very though job in offense and I hardly see them scoring 70 points here. 59-68 range looks more realistic while Montepaschi should finish somewhere in 69-75 points. I see this game quite underish between 128 and 145 points, sure some risk is involved but under 142 still looks ok for small bet.
Pick: under 142.5 @ 1.9 4/10 Expekt
Zalgiris - Zagreb
Zalgiris with -10 looks so strange after such unbalanced Euroleague performance with only one really good win over Brose last week... It is hard for me to skip Zagreb +10 but I will skip because intuition says that lithuanian team will try to say sorry for their last home game versus PAO by winning this by as much as possible margin and take revenge for away loss which moved to such bad position. Zalgiris is definetely better team than Zagreb but handicap around 5-8 points would be more fair and I expect Zalgiris to win by 5-12 points.
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