Bilbao vs. Tau Ceramica

1) Bilbao overestimated here because of strong first season half when they played against weak opponents at home (10-1 at home right now) and were in better conditions than leaders against whom they won. Now everything is different. Tau is top team in its best conditions right now. Bilbao form now 4-6 while Tau 8-2

2) Bilbao without 3 players: Weis, Rancik & Reccer. How they will compete against Tau front line

3) This is a derby so motivation is always there. For Tau this is more important because current goal is to get closer to Real Madrid. Aslo Tau wants revenge for 2 points home loss in first round.

4) Spahija said now every game is Euroleague type game for his team because it's time to show real power of TAU. And with 12 man in rotation they looks like real power.. Spahija wants to be at its best form before EL playoffs.

5) From statistical point of view Bilbao can't score more than 78 points usually even with full roster. They defend very hard and win games by defense but these Tau offense looks unstoppable. They score 85+ points in every game and noone can stop them because when 10 players can score in double digits it is really unstopable machine

6) Bilbao coach and players understand that they can't compete against TAU at this moment without 3 important players and on www.acb.com you can find many interviews where they declare that it will be very hard game for them. In my opinion they are now in downtrend and until March 26 when injuries players will return they will continue their form dropdown to wake in the end of regular season. They have 4 wins more than 9th placed Gran Canaria and they can relax at this moment of the season because their goal is to stay in playoffs zone. They are not a top team to compete for Top-4 positions.

I don't see any single factor talking for Bilbao today. If they would be in full roster maybe I would not touch this game but without 3 important players under basket I rate their chances to win this game around 25-27%. Tau is very strong favorite to win here and I expect odds to drop down to 1.45-1.50 today. I expect to win this game by at least 3 points because they must take h-2-h advantage and considering situation in Bilbao I think they are capable to win by 8-15 points.

Pick: Tau (-2.5) @ 1.85 Sportingbet