AJ Milano v Premiata Montegranaro

Premiata Montegranaro vs Olimpia Milano 73:69 10.05.2008
Olimpia Milano vs Premiata Montegranaro 78:74 01.03.2008
Premiata Montegranaro vs Olimpia Milano 82:73 04.11.2007

These teams played 3 times this season and all games were close enough however in all matches hosts prevailed over away team. Same trend was last year where teams played also 3 times and as I remember Milan won season series 2-1. This year Montegranaro looks a bit stronger and their 4th place in regular is not a surprise for me. They have experienced players like K.Garris (ex-Milan player), S.Ford, J.Tomas and these players knows how to play under stress in playoff mode.

A.J. Milano is right favorite here because at home their very hard to beat however I don't expect things to be easy for them today. At least 1.45 for me looks a bit unfair price because as I remember they had never dictated their rules in games with Montegranaro and hard battle is expected here too. But probably host side have a bit more class and this will play into their favor finaly.

Most bookmakers set total line at 152.5 points but I think that this game have good chances to go under. So far these teams scored in average 36.4 pts per quarter and game tempo was always under 160 posessions. In their last game in Montegranaro we have seen score was only 50:44 after 3 quarters and only because of 47 points in last part of the game teams managed to reach 140 points (game ended 72:69). Shooting percentage was not low and it means that both team use long possession in offense and defense from both ends is superb. I think that more fair total for this series must be around 149 points. If this total would be set for first game today we would see something around 146.5-147.5 what is fair line as for me.

Prediction

Should be a very close game with long posessions. But in the end Euroleague experience of A.J.Milano should prevail over second-year team mentality. My prediction close and hard earned Milan win by 2-7 points.

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