The Western Conference-leading Lynx will try to secure their fourth win in five games at the Target Center on Thursday as they face the Monarchs, who have won 11 of the teams' last 12 meetings and each of the last five matchups in Minneapolis. After opening the year with five straight victories, Minnesota (6-2) has dropped two of its last three games, with both losses coming to East-leading Connecticut. The Lynx fell 75-66 at home Tuesday for its second defeat to the Sun in four days.

The venue, though, hasn't mattered in matchups between the Western Conference rivals as the Monarchs (4-4) hold a 21-11 advantage in the all-time series after winning three of four meetings against the Lynx last season. But it was Minnesota that came away with a 78-73 victory in Sacramento on July 29 in the teams' most recent matchup. It was the Lynx's first win in 12 meetings with the Monarchs since beating them at home nearly four years ago.

Sacramento started season in top-team style by losing few games and than gaining form from game to game. Now they are on hot winning streak of 2 games and are 3-1 ATS in last 4 games as well as winning 3 of 4 last games against Houston, New York and Washington this night. Sacramento is experienced team with many experienced players who knows how to win games on experience and maturity. They are currently showing their level of game on both ends of the floor and I think that we should back more experienced team in this matchup

After 5-0 Lynx became public team and this is one of the reason why bookies set them as strong favorites here. At least I think so because I don't see any reasons talking into Minnesota favor. Minnesota owns 6-2 record but five of those six wins came against struggling teams. Sacramento Monarchs are improving these days and adding to this that Minnesota lost 11 of 12 games to this franchise I doubt that Lynx will win today without speaking about covering 9.5 pts handicap. Last year Sacramento were 5 and 2 points favs in Minnesota and I really can't see any serious reason why Minnesota was set as 9.5 favs for this game except those I have wrote. Maybe back-to-back game status also have some weight in this line but this is not a 3rd game in 4 days when fatique become a importand factor. This is only a back to back game which may cost 1.5-2 pts from the line.

I expected to see -3.5 on Minnesota today so +9.5 on Sacramento represent big value for me. Good choice for medium stakes. I would not be suprised to see another loss of young Minnesota team. Don't forget that Sacramento is a playoff-calibre team.

Pick: Sacramento to win @ 4.75 PinnacleSports

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