WNBA Pick: Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury

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Written by Alleks

Sunday, 29 June 2008

VS.

Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury

While the Mercury (6-7) began the season 0-4 and dropped six of their first eight after winning their first league title last year, they've rebounded with wins in four of their last five - with Taurasi topping 30 points three times over that span.

"We have the nucleus back but it still takes a little bit of time to get used to each other," Taurasi said. "We're looking at all these games as a training camp as getting in condition to play the way we want to play mentally and physically. It's starting to come together a little bit."

The Mercury will seek a third straight victory for the first time this season on Sunday. After dropping the first game of their road trip, they notched wins at Washington and Chicago, beating the Sky 89-79 on Thursday as six players scored in double figures. The Sun (12-4) have won five straight at home, but barely survived against the winless Atlanta Dream on Friday, handing the expansion team its 14th straight loss to start the season in a 109-101 overtime win.

"They are an up-tempo team and they have two main players who are really good," Jones said of the Mercury after that game. "So going in you just hope you can defend them well. ... When they both get hot like tonight you're in for a long game."

The home team has won the last five games in this series.

Prediction

I am not sure about who will win this game. Connecticut will seek for revenge after 23-points loss in Phoenix but this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and I am not sure that Sun will have enough power to show their best offensive skills. Offensively Suns are very talented team but they scored more than 89 points only once this season in their season opener against Atlanta Dream. According to my calculations Connecticut have 79.5-74 in last 10 games, and if this game will be played in Mercury style (which do 11 possesions more per game) it will transform to 84-78.5. And I Sun wants to win this game they must defend better against Mercury and limit them under 85 points.

On other side we have Mercury which is very powerful in offense but they always fail to score when play in Connecticut. So far in last 4 games in Connecticut both team failed to score 160 points. Phoenix will use a lot of zone defense today against Sun as they usually do on offensive end I doubt they will be able to score more than 85 points because Sun defense worked really well and they also play in fast tempo usually so should not experience problems with fast-tempo Mercury offense.

I expect to see 165-170 points game today with possible 175 points but 179 points line looks too high. I expect to see Connecticut Sun in the 83-90 points range while Mercury will score in the 77-85. I don't exclude scenarion where Mercury wins a game by something like 88-85 but it still under 179.5 points line.

Predicted score: Connecticut 87 - 82 Phoenix

Pick: Under 179.5 @ 1.90 Bet365

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