Connecticut vs. San Antonio

I disagree with 145 pts line for this match. Such total is set because of SA defense which works pretty well against inside team only like LA Sparks, Detroit Shock, Houston Comets and so on. Also most of the team in WNBA has poor 3-point shooting ability. 

But Sun is different teamm they have very balanced team on all positions with deep bench and one of the most stable offense in the league which is rocking right with 84.8 pts per game in last 5 games. SA Silver Stars also usualy score 70+ pts but limit opponents under 72 points. It will pretty hard to stop Connecticut offense on their own court. My expectations are Connecticut to score in the 75-80 pts range, and Stars scoring range 68-74 points. So my statistical line is 77.5-71.5 (total 149 points) and I would set 150.5-152 pts line here if I would be a bookmaker because of the following trends:

• Sun average home total 157 points
• Sun covered 145 pts total in 80% of home games
• Stars covered 145 pts total in 50% of away games

So we have at least 65% probability for Over 145 here from this trends.

Prediction: Connecticun Sun 79 - 74 SA Silver Stars

Pick: Over 145 @ 1.90 Bwin

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Helmut  - Careful   |2008-09-07 15:53:07 Careful both these teams are the best defensive teams in the league. In last 18 games the Sun have a O/U record of 6-12. The Stars have a O/U record of 5-10 on the road. The Stars have come out of the break playing very good defense holding the Sparks (twice) and Phoenix to under 60 points. Reply | Quote 0   0

goginho   |2008-09-07 22:00:35 Well done mate great work Reply | Quote 0   0

Anonymous   |2008-09-08 10:21:20 clever and smart, like always thank you dino Reply | Quote 0   0

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