Head coach Fotis Katsikaris's charges lost by 5 points at Zadar, but earned a 23-point home win to move on as the team's depth showed with big performances from point guard Shammond Williams, backcourt mate Ruben Douglas, swingman Fred House and power forward Dejan Milojevic. These teams know each other well from battles in Spain. Pamesa knocked off Joventut 92-85 in early January in the Spanish League as Douglas and Williams combined for 44 points on 12 three-pointers, but Joventut got its revenge in the King's Cup quarterfinals with an 84-59 rout. Both teams are quite deep with talented players all around, but the focus of their attacks and likely of this game is on the perimeter, where Fernandez, Rubio and Demond Mallet lead the Joventut attack against Williams, Douglas and House. Fernandez will have to deal with the defensive talents of House, just as the teenage Rubio, already a former Euroleague steals champ, will create trouble for his foe, likely to be Douglas at the outset. In the paint, the interesting battles will pit Joventut's Jan-Hendrick Jagla against Milojevic, while Jerome Moiso and Edu Hernandez-Sonseca battle Stanko Barac and Ruben Garces. Super-efficient scorer Lubos Barton could play a major role as well for Joventut, while athletic teenage forward Victor Claver a potential difference-maker for Pamesa. The combination of deep rotations, coaches and players who know each other well, plus the high stakes of the quarterfinals makes this game hard to predict. Joventut's play in big games so far this season makes it the favorite as the club leads the ULEB Cup in rebounds, assists and fewest fouls committed per game, while placing third in scoring. However, Pamesa knows that the past matters little when it takes the floor and its experienced group will be ready to challenge from the opening tip of what figures to be a true ULEB Cup thriller.

Betting overview

I think that this game could be most ineresting one on this tournament. Joventud is heavily backed by public but I again will say the same words I was telling 2 month ago on Copa Del Rey - Pamesa is toughest opponent for Joventud after Real Madrid in Spain. Joventud lost 12 of last 17 games to this team and I would not overestimate 83:59 win because Pamesa was hit by injuries right before Copa Del Rey have started. Now it's different story and Pamesa had plenty of time to prepare for this battle under the closed doors in Turin where they live since Monday.

According to some players & coach interview Pamesa's game plan is to fast basketball and try to get a win over Joventud. Joventud is a great team for sure but Pamesa is team which can make surprises so I am not planning to back Joventud for such low odds. As for ability to low tempo of the game it is notable that Pamesa forced Joventud to slow down game pace in their last meeting in Badalona. Teams did only 164 possession while average numbers for Joventud at home is around 175. If Pamesa will find a way to control game tempo today on neutral field they should have good chances to fight for a win. If not than it's difficult to predict what kind of game we will see.

Anyway 158.5 points line looks too high for me taking into consideration that this game will be played on neutral field and this is a quarterfinal of ULEB Cup where no mistakes could be done. My statistical analysis showed that line should be 80-73.5 (153.5 in total) and this is 5 points under the betting line bookmakers have set up for this game. If game will be low tempo I think that defensive approach will be more visible here because both teams knows how to defend their basket. Don't forget that Joventud allows only 65.5 per game in Uleb Cup and it means they could accept defensive style of play.

Prediction:  Joventud for sure have more chances to win this game simply because they are more powerful team with better winning mentality but during a game odds on Pamesa should drop down to 2.40-2.60 from 4.0 so it could be a good chance for profit making at Betfair . As for betting I will try under158.5 here because fair line should be 5 points lower according to my calculations and I would not be suprised to see 140-147 points game if both teams will play low tempo as Pamesa's coach wants. Joventud is slight favorite to win this game by 4-10 points (depends on many factors so no value in my eyes in handicap betting).

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