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 Uleb Cup playoffs take start today in Europe. Bookmakers released line 3-4 days ago and during this period most lines had significant changes which made today's betting not easy task because most games already have lines very close to fair estimations. So be careful with your stakes.
In this article I will publish only those picks where I see at least some advantage over the line and I hope that Euroleague losing streak would not repeat again.
ASCO Slask Wroclaw vs. Dynamo Moscow This game will be showed on Eurosport-2 so public demand will be higher for this match preview. In my opinion Dynamo have more talented roster than Polish team. Looking at the line before the game I see no value here. Dynamo is not a team to trust in away matches because they often fails to play their best basketball away from home. But now it's a playoffs time and maybe something will change in their minds. Dynamo is all-sides better team and if they will play seriuosly during whole 40 minutes they should be capable of covering 7.5 pts handicap but if not who knows... By the way Vujanic and Samoylenko finally recovered from their injuries and are with team in Poland. So team is in full roster and they should be able to win this game. I am tending to take Dynamo -7.5 but only as TV-pick because Dynamo is very unpredictable team. CEZ Nymburk vs. PGE Turow Zgorzelec This game will be played in Pardubice where 9000 supporters will root for czechs. I hold Nymburk as very organized team with good defense and I expect them to win this round. Turow was first in their group but their group was full of not optimal teams like Hapoel, Strasbourg and Unics. Nymburk survived in much stronger group and I can't see them losing first game at home. I expected to see smth around 1.45 which looks more fair odds.
Pick: Nymburk to win @ 1.60 5/10 Expekt
Lukoil Academic vs. BK Ventspils I must say that I underestimated Lukoil on group stage and they proved that this year they are real power especially at home. They showed brilliant, hard to stop basketball and won 6 games of 10 in their group. And were close to winning 7 games because game in Kiev was under bulgarian control until last minutes. Also they played many games with injury-shortened roster but for this game they will have complete roster and super-motivation.
Venstpils is much weaker this year comparing to last year and you should not overtestimate their results in first stage because they had one of the easiest group in ULEB Cup with Koln, Elan Chalon, Ovarense and Zeleznik. Venstpils is weaker team that Riga which lost to Lukoil by 16 pts in Bulgaria.
I expect Lukoil to prevail here and if they want to be in 1/8 of Uleb Cup they should build secure points margin in home match. Personally I expect them to win by 9-14 points so I will back -5.5 handicap at Betfair with medium/medium low stake only because this is bet on "moved by public" line.
Pick: Lukoil (-5.5) @ 1.85 4/10 Betfair /Stan James
Unics Kazan vs. Turk Telekom I was thinking about taking Kazan handicap here but it raised to -6 yesterday and now I see only small value in this position. Especially after I read in russian newspapers that Chikalkin is highly doubtful for this game because of high fever he had during last 2 days. But there is another good bet in this line.
Under new coach Unics played 15 games and average total of those games is only 143.5 pts. I am sure that Unics will try to avoid running offensive minded basketball today, and will defend strong on 3-points line to stop turkish shooters. TTT was playing against very fast teams during first stage and that is one of the reasons why their average total is 175 points. If we look into their results in Turkish Superleague we will find that they had 5 of 10 away games under 160 points and in some games total was around 145 points.
I expect to see low tempo positional basketball today in Kazan and under 161 looks to high . I expect this game to end with total around 146-154 points.
Pick: under 161 @ 1.91 4/10 PinnacleSports Hapoel Jerusalim vs. Besiktas Can't agree with Hapoel outsider role in this game. As for me both team are same class teams and at home Hapoel is very hard team to beat. Hapoel will play with full roster and they already proved that they can play fantastic basketball when beat Maccabi in Tel-Aviv 2 weeks ago in Isralian Supercup final. Though, Maccabi revenged them in last league game but it is normal reaction for Euroleague class team. Besiktas set 10-0 record in easiest group and for me those results tells nothing. Besiktas as well as Hapoel have strong starting five but Hapoel have more weapons on the bench and fantastic home crowd. I think that fair odds on Hapoel should be around 1.68-1.74 and maybe even lower. Betfair as well as some bookies currently offers Hapoel with odds around 2.00 and higher.. I don't expect a walk over for home side but I rate their chances to win this game as 55-57% (odds around 1.64-1.72). Pick: Hapoel Jerusalim @ 2.02 Betfair
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