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Written by Alleks
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Sunday, 10 February 2008 |
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 Tau Ceramica vs DKV Joventut
Here we are. The Final. The expected final (at least for me it was expected). What to expect from this game? Will Tau win King's cup or Joventud will get their first title in club new history?
Honestly speaking I feel that Joventud have talent and power surprise public in Vittoria. Joventud leaders Barton-Rudy-Mallett(+Rubio) have BIG potential but they still lack winning mentality and tactical variousness in their game. Their bench is long, their power forwards and centers are very similar to TAU big players and they match up perfectly with them. Guards match up well against Prigioni - Planinic - Rakocevic - Vidal on both sides of the floor. Maybe Planinic is a bit too strong physically for Mallet and Rubio and here is first advantage of Tau but this is only place where Tau have slight advantage in rosters matchups. But there are some another small details which are talking into Tau favor.
First and most important is home field. Now everyone in Vittoria will support them. Tau players knows very well how to handle with such pressure when only thing you have to do is to win ONE game and get ALL. And usually Tau reacts well in such situations when they play at home. Second small detail is that Tau had more rest. Joventud will play 3rd game in 3 days, while Tau had one day rest on Friday, and 3 hours more since last game vs Bilbao. Third detail is that Tau experience. In general, Tau players are more experienced to show their best skills under pressure. After reading these details you should start thinking about backing Tau victory in this game, but now I will tell you why bookies offered such high price for Tau...
Joventud is a young and phycially strong team. Their coach is very smart man. In first game vs Pamesa only Lubos Barton played 27 minutes all others key players were on court only for 20-23 minutes in first game. Against Real main players were on court for 26-28 minutes (only Rudy was there for 32 minutes). So fatique factor is not so decisive because young players can't tire after playing 20-25 minutes. Joventud have no pressure at all and here is a BIG ROOM where Joventud could step in this final. They are undergogs but they are on fire after beating Real Madrid and if Joventud leaders will find their tempo and shot today.. I think that they will win this game. You think this sounds like "mission impossible"? Ok.. fast fact:
December 30, 2007. Vittoria. Tau Ceramica - DKV Joventud. 32-47 at half time... but 80-73 in the end.
SummaryBookies expects close match and possible surprise. In their last game in Vittoria Tau was priced at Pinnacle at 1.55 and now it is priced at 1.66. Where is a logic? Linesmakers think that Joventud should be respected in the line and I already said my opinion why. It will be very important for Joventud to start well and not to allow Tau to build early lead. If this task completed - everything may happen in this game. If Joventud will catch their game I think that it will be 50/50 game and I feel that this is very probable scenarion and that's why I avoid taking Tau @ 1.60 or lower. I would take Tau at 1.80-2.00 before the game but not at the current price. So betting for available only during in-play because without TV-screen it's hard to predict who is in better condition today.
Prediction: I don't want to predict a winner here. I just think that Tau can experience many difficulties today especially if Joventud will play with heart and soul. This is a gamewe MUST TO WATCH but not bet at least before the game. Enjoy basketball!
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