Money line and asian handicap markets have no value in my eyes because Bilbao looks really nice and they don't fear anyone in this league. Tau is a home team + public loves them so nothing strange that bookies set lines according to public demand. But also we should not forget that this is a local derby in semifinal so some kind of suprises are possible here too especially from Bilbao. But also we know what power is Tau at home and what is happening with their opponents when Rakokokocevic and Co is on fire so it's hard to back Bilbao too.
But what I like in this game is over/under line. Bookies relies on their lines history to set lines usually. Here we have again 151.5-152.5 pts line as it was in the first match which ended 78-80 Bilbao win. That game ended with 158 points total and something similar I expect to see today. So here are the reasons:
a) Both teams like to run transition offense (so called early offense). It was hard to pull fast against Unicaja and Barcelona but against each other it should be a bit easier.
b) In first game both teams did 190 posession that 18.5% higher than normal. So fast tempo game could repeat again
c) Both teams have many offensive weapons and that helps them to score more than 70 points in every game (Tau scored 70+ points in 19 of 20 games in ACB, Bilbao in 16/20). So both teams have good chances to score over 70 points
d) I would not be suprised to see a close end in this game and foul tactics is also available in last minute so 6-8 pts could be scored in the end.
e) Funny thing. We had 4 unders in quarterfinals so over should happen sooner or later. This semifinal looks better for Over than Real-Joventud so let's try it.
I think that these factors a bit underestimated and I hope they will help us to choose a right side of over/under line.
Prediction: Tau is better team for sure, but Bilbao impress a lot. I expect to see Tau leading since first minutes but I doubt that this lead will be more than 10 points. Bilbao will have a chance enter the game but Tau experience and home factor will help them to win by 5-9 points.Predicted score: Tau Ceramica 83 - 76 Bilbao BasketPick: Over 152 @ 1.90 5/10 PinnacleSports Real Madrid v DKV Joventut Badalona As I already said on my web site Joventud is my favorite to win this cup or at least to reach a final. Real as always represents danger for Joventud but now it's best moment for revenge. While Real still struggles from losses Joventud is on fire. Maybe there were not so impressive in quarterfinals with Pamesa but as I said Pamesa is hardest team for them. Joventud knows how to play against Real Madrid and their last 5-6 games were very very close. I don't expect walkover for Joventud in this match but I definetely can't agree with their outsider role. This game will be played on neutral field and I think that spectators will favor younger and ambitiuos team.
Joventud is a favorite to win this game for me and I advice to take their handicap. If line would be 1.65-1.7 on Joventud side I would probably skipped but today I suppose we have advantage over the line. So Joventud to win or to lose by 2-3 points in end is my prediction.
Prediction: Joventud should be able to control game tempo and boards while Real forced to play only with Reyes under baskets. On the guards line Joventud have slight advantage because they have Ricky-Rudy-Mallet-Barton offensive power against Bullock-Smith duet. Real will try slow down tempo but offensive performance will be decisive factor today and Joventud should prevail there.
Predicted score: Joventud 78 - 73 RealPick: Joventud +3.5 @ 1.90 Expekt or Sportingbet 
Tau Ceramica vs Bilbao Basket
