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Copa Del Rey: Quarterfinals Day 2 |
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Written by Alleks
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Friday, 08 February 2008 |
 We have another 2 quarterfinals of Copa Del Rey on Friday but both of them are quite difficult for betting purposes. In general I recommend you to avoid betting on these matches or wait for live-betting where some profit can be made especially for those who have accounts at betting exchange. DKV Joventut vs Pamesa Valencia
DKV Joventut according to polls organized on this site is a favorite to win this Cup together with TAU and honestly speaking I voted for them too. But before they should get through uncomfortable opponent Pamesa.
Joventud lost 12 of last 16 games to them and this trend is very difficult to overcome for me. More important is that Joventud lost all matches since Pamesa is coached by Katsikaris... and this what worries me a lot. Looks like Greek knows how to play against Joventud and have weapons to achieve this goal because his team have very deep roster with many tactical solutions while Joventud have only one playing scheme and quite young roster. I am not sure about Joventud ability to dictate tempo of this game because usually Pamesa involve them into defensive battle and only last game was exclusion from the defensive rule. But there we had 15 triples from Pamesa and really doubt about same performance today.
Money line in my eyes is too much affected by Pamesa roster problems last weekend but now according to Pamesa official site all players are healthy, maybe not at their best form but will play for sure. Who knows may be it was only an attempt to give some rest to key players before this cup.. All in one I think that this game is 60/40 game into Joventud side and 1.60-2.40 odds looks more fair than 1.45-2.90.
Prediction: I expect another defensive battle here with total around 152-155 points but here my confidence is a bit lower than yesterday. Also another "cup surprise" is possible here but it depends on Pamesa leaders form. Only their coach knows real level of their game so I would not give prediction on the game outcome. Predicted score: DKV Joventud 79 - 74 Pamesa Valencia
Betfair Tip: I think that here we have good situation for trading. I expect Pamesa price to drop down until 2.20-2.40 during in-play. But have in mind that Joventud is a public team and you will need to wait & believe in Pamesa for at least one quarter to see their price to drop. It's better to take Pamesa in the beginning of the match when you will see rosters and level of Pamesa.
Pick: under 161 @ 1.87 3/10 PinnacleSports Real Madrid vs GironaI prefer to stay away from this game. Real have sick Herville, injured Papadoupolos and new signing Iturbe. I am not sure if Real is really interested in this cup because usually announce their goals if they want something but here they are just to play and try to win a cup. Sure they are much better than Girona but I think that it's not best time to back any of these teams. 3 players left in Girona (Drobniak, Stevenson and Vroman), 2 came in (T.Nagys and E.Daniels) and M.Gasol is questionable. I really don't know what to expect from these teams in such conditions and that's why I will skip this game.
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