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ACB League Final. TAU Ceramica vs. Barcelona :: Game 3 Pick PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alleks   
Tuesday, 03 June 2008

Tau CeramicaVS. FC Barcelona

Tau Ceramica vs. Barcelona

3rd game of ACB League final could be a good opportunity for medium stake. As I expected total's line stayed on 154.5 mark after 2 games in Barcelona went under this total. But I would like to notice that both games were not low tempo. Defense was a factor for sure but individual performance of Lakovic and Acker was not a factor in this series. However, Barcelona was looking much better in 2nd game after very low quality match in Game 1 when they lost 64:75. In Game 2 Barcelona scored 74 points but Lakovic and Acker were still out of this game with 11 points in total. But as team Barcelona was better and today I expect to see even better game level from Barcelona because they don't have any pressure (because their playoffs goal was to qualify into EL, while championship title hope is only a miracle with 0-2 and 2 games in Vittoria in the schedule).

Another important factor why I would raise game total for this game is Barcelona defense in away matches. Away from home their defense is not working like it works at home (80 against 69.5) and in 9 of 20  away games in ACB league they allowed opponents to score 83 and more points. With Tau offensive trend at home (87.5 in average, and 17 of 20 scored over 80 points) we have really big chances that Tau will score in the 82-87 range. On other side offensively Barcelona is capable of scoring in the 74-80 points range. If they Lakovic and Acker will finaly start playing close to their level Barcelona will be competetive and I would not be suprised to see close end with Barcelona to prevail in Game 3.

But I don't see any value in predicting winner here because I'll never decide to bet against Tau at home with such low handicap. But looking into totals line I still can't accept this line because more fair total line for me should be 82.5-77. I expect to see exciting game with 156-162 points scored after 40 minutes.

Prediction: Tau Ceramica 78 - 82 FC Barcelona

Pick: Over 154.5 @ 1.94 5/10 PinnacleSports

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