Wednesday basketball picks by Alleks

Written by Alleks

Wednesday, 18 October 2006

Greece A1

Aris – Maroussi
This pick was not wrote by me but I have the same thoughts as my friend Lamogio and with his approve I'm posting his thoughts here.

Critical match for both sides but most for the home team who plays under the hot crowd and good home record. Aris lost (by 13) in Athens against powerful Panathinaikos but team missed the game from really early, as PAO made an early run and flew around 15-20 points margin for the most time of the game. Aris played without three players who supposed to be regulars or keys for this season. Aris didn’t start the season well as they knocked out from Cup, didn’t impress that much in the friendly matches, so that’s a nice chance for a good game and an important win. President had meet with the coach and players; said them that he trusts them and that they must look forward. Point guards Kalaitzis and Iliadis are back and should start today. Alex Scales took part in last training and he will take some time from coach Mazzon. Maroussi has as aim (like every season) to finish in first 6 of standing. Played quite bad second half against Olympia (lost by 2) after wasting big margin. They don’t have some serious problem for today and the need to break that bad record which has when play against Aris. Aris accomplished to beat Maroussi several times last season (for league and play–offs) and the most times were more than 6p like handicap offered by bookies today.

All in all, Aris will have help from the fans, having the hottest home stadium in Greece and needs the win to increase its psychology for the upcoming games for Euroleague and A1.

Pick: H (-6), Odds: 1.94, Stake: 4, Bookmaker: 10Bet

Olympiacos - Panellinios
Oly have big advantage over Panellinios because of long bench and that pressure from 1st till 40 minute should help Oly to cover handicap, I expect something like 94-76 here and I'm taking it with medium low stake only because HC is bit to high to take with high stakes. Maybe 1st half line is a better solution - if you have it in the line take it.

Pick: Olympiacos to cover -14.5 10Bet.com (medium-low)

LNB PRO A French League

Cholet Basket - Clermontois Basket
Very important game for Cholet. They changed their coach but new one is not available yet for this game for some reason (I did not understand in French for what reason correctly). So the important game without old coach and without new one. Usually such factors give a boost for team and this is the first reason why I expect full strenght and motivated Cholet at home, but unfortunately I still don't trust them to give them easy home win but I expect them to fight in defense as they always do.

Clermoint have 1-5 record and they have new signing Fason from Reims. But even this does not help them, they still have troubles in offense where they score 66 points as well as they opponents from Cholet. And both teams allows 75-77 points in defense in average. But today they will meet each other and seems that any of these teams simply can't score 75+ points. Clermoint scored 81 points against Racing but that's all due the one quarter when they scored 29 points (while only 51 points during other 3 quarters).

I expect this game to be close and difficult one for teams with a total about 135-139 points and not 145 like bookies expect.

Pick: Under 143.5 Bet365.com (medium confidence)

Roanne Chorale - Orleanaise Entente
Roanne have a chance to occupy their seat at the top table and I expect them to very motivated today against league newcomers. In Roanne all teams have problems and I expect Orleanaise to have them too, especially without one important starter and 3rd leading scorer Dewar Benjamin who have problems with his back and stayed at home.

I agree that newcomers have really strong character and till now they showed they are not easy opponent but today home team is better and probably more motivated because Orleannaise did a good start and sooner or later they will start to go down.

Pick: Roanne (-7) 10Bet (medium confidence)

Dijon Bourgogne - Strasbourg IG
Looney will start his season today with Strasbourg and this should be a big boust for this team because he is key player in their offensive schemes. Maybe he is not at 100% but Strasbourg in my opinion could score 75 points easily as well as to defend well from Dijon attacks. Till now Dijon played with defensive minded opponents and seems that bookies a bit overrate their defensive abilities.

I expect something like 79-72 for Strasbourg and I have to picks to consider:

Pick: Strasbourg to score OVER 73.5 10Bet (medium-high)
Pick: Strasbourg to cover -4 @ 2.75 Bet365.com (medium-low)

NBA Preseason game

Boston Celtics - New Jersey Nets
Boston is working on their new running offense when they try to score in first 10 seconds, and set the attack in 20 sec if first offensive option is failed. As results they have really great offensive performance till now as you see from their preseason results:

Boston @ Cleveland Preseason 109-93
Toronto vs Boston Preseason 118-112 OT
Cleveland @ Boston Preseason 91-82
New York vs Boston Preseason 116-108

And Paul Pierce should play today his first game and that's also a positive factor for Boston offense.

NJ Nets are still not interested in entering their key players into the squad and it's expected that their leaders Kidd and Carter will miss their games today. Without them NJ Nets have 3 loses and I expect to see them losing again today and 100+ scoring effort from Boston Celtics.

Toronto vs New Jersey Preseason 119-110
New York vs New Jersey Preseason 111-97
Indiana vs New Jersey Preseason 103-89

Pick: Boston (-3) @ Parimatch.com (medium)
Pick: Boston OVER 96 @ Parimatch.com (medium)

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