WNBA Finals. Pick for Game 5

Written by Alleks

Saturday, 09 September 2006

WNBA Finals. Game 5.
Sacramento Monarchs at Detroit Shock

Game 5 is game to watch not to bet. You should know this before placing any bet.

Usually home team wins such games, but here we have situation when away team have more talent than Detroit and their game style does not suit Detroit Shock. Sacramento have very strong front-court and this makes them very difficult team to beat for Detroit Shock because their main offensive weapons are in the same line too, while Shock guards don't show stable confident game. In Game 2 Detroit closed a game with strong 4 quarter, while in Game 4 Sacramento lost before the game (there were too much talks that only magic could help Shock to win Game 5 at Sacramento where Monarchs have not lost during 15 matches).

That's why I don't want to back home team today. I think that Sacramento is a better team with more depth, but I don't know if they will be ready mentally for this game after unexpected loss in Game 4.

And now let's go to the pick.

I think that this game is a game where defense really matters. Yeah, till know they scored 153 points in average in first 3 games, but in Game 4 total was only 124 points. But Sacramento have not scored in last 7 minutes, if they would score total would be about 135 points.

And one more thing that caught my eye in this series. In all four games team played very effective in first quarters by scoring 46, 45, 38 and 48 points. Today such quarter appearance is a big question for me because of Game 5 status, and psychological press on both sides. Without this quarters average of other 12 quarters is only 34 points per quarter and this could be a correct total for this game.

All in one I expect this game to be very close one and low-scoring.

Predicted score: Detroit 69 - 67 Sacramento

Pick: UNDER 140.5 (medium-low confidence)

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