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Detroit Shock (28-13) at Sacramento Monarchs (26-14)
Spread: -4.5 Total: 140.5 Game 3 is a crucial game of best of five series, especially when series are tied at 1-1. Today's winner will be one step way from champions title. Sacramento is a great home team with 16-3 record and 79-69.5 average score at home. They easily won first game by 24 points (95-71) and in Game 2 they had 11 points lead, but they lost 63-73. What was a reason ? The reason is simple: "We just hit a wall there physically," Whisenant said. "I started seeing my players didn't have any zip."
The collapse actually started in the third quarter. Sacramento missed 20 of its first 24 shots in the second half, scoring just nine points in the fourth while Detroit rode a wave of emotion to the win. But they still scored 63 points, and they would easily score 70+ points if they would play better in last quarter. But they were tired and that killed them. Detroit won last quarter by 16 points and and won. Generally in all 4 games played this season Sacramento were better and Shock always had problems with this team, but in both their wins this season against Monarchs they closed games with strong 4th quarters (25-9 and 24-11). In all other quarters Sacramento outscored Shock 303-247 (21.6:17,6 per quarter). As you see average of 14 quarters is 39.2 points and today's total set at 141.5 include 4 quarters by 35 points. I think that this line is too much under 'final game status' impression. Yes, defense matters in the finals but seems that for these teams defense means a lot of fouls and free throws. And till now I think that both teams can score 70+ points, and fact that in 6 of lasy 7 games they hit an over proves that over is bet to place here. Regarding a spread I think that it's worth to try Sacramento to cover spread but I think that we have only 2-3 advantage over the line so I decided to skip this game. Predicted score: Sacramento 76 - 69 Detroit Pick: Over 140.5 (medium confidence)
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