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Eurobasket-2007 Qualification Picks for September 9 |
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Written by Alleks
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Saturday, 09 September 2006 |
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Denmark - Estonia
Both teams show very bad offense performance scoring less 65 points (DEN about 61, Estonia about 50.5 but they could score 60 easily as friendlies games results show ). Add to this slow tempo which Estonia team likes and good defence (Estonians allowed 20+ points per quarter only 2 times of 12 played quarters).
And finally result of first game was 51-50 for Estonia and that's not because of bad shooting, they scored 2pts with 50+ percentage, there were some problems with long shots (5 of 31) but that's not a factor for this teams because they don't have snipers in their squad.
So all in one I expect the same low tempo play with good defense from both sides. I think that end score should be about 124-132 points not 142.5 like bookies offer.
Predicted score: 67-62
Pick: UNDER 142.5 (medium-high confidence)
Hungary - Russia
I already did small analysis of first game, the only thing I did not said that Russian were able to win with 25+ points advantage easily but because of first official game status and lot of stupid turnovers they failed in 1 and 3 quarters and that was a reason why Russia did not get larger spread.
After game Guliash said the he and his teammates are very surprised to loss only 20 points. They expected to be trashed. At home Hungarians could be a bit better, but I doubt that this factor costs 10 points which sportsbooks cut from first game HC when russians were set as 15-18 points favorite.
Russians played really well in first half with Czechs especially in defence by putting a big pressure on point guards and forcing them to do a lot of turnovers. Russia don't have right to lose this game and I expect easy and comfortable win here.
Predicted score: 71-85
Pick: Russia (-6) (medium-high confidence)
Belgium - Czech Republic
I was shocked to see Czechs ML set at 1.70, after few hours it dropped down to 1.55 but is still 9.95/10 bet for me because here we have absolutely different class teams and Czechs should win this game easily.
The only reason I see here why odds are so high is that Belgium won against Russia at home, while Czechs lost by 23 points in away game. But I have seen Czechs and need to say that this team have all to give a real fight to Russians at home.
Predicted score: 69-81
Pick: Czech ML @ 1.55 (high confidence) Also I like parlay Croatia + Macedonia (odds @ 1.76). Both teams are class above teams and I don't see them losing their games, especially Macedonia which must revenge for 18-points loss in Portugal 2 weeks ago. I expect both teams to win with 10+ points advantage
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