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Chicago Bulls vs Detroit Pistons Game 3 Preview and Prediction PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alleks   
Thursday, 10 May 2007

 vs

Chicago Bulls vs Detroit Pistons (0-2)

Game 3 prediction

96 - 94

Press clippings

Pistons overrebound Bulls

The Bulls were a plus-35 on the boards against the Pistons in the regular season, averaging 17 second-chance points in four games. In the first two playoff games, the Pistons are a plus-29 with 33 second-chance points.

"As much as we can, we have to take pressure off our bigs," Hamilton said. "With bigs helping so much, we have to box out their man. We weren't doing that earlier in the season."

The other factor has been the Bulls' insistence on fronting the post and playing more zone. They are playing in front of Rasheed Wallace and Chris Webber, which puts the Pistons in better offensive rebounding position.

Antonio McDyess status

Antonio McDyess was at practice Tuesday, though part of his attention was in Mississippi with his ailing grandmother.

Saunders said there were no plans for McDyess to return to Mississippi, but that obviously could change at any time.

"Playing at home, they will have more of a comfort level," Pistons coach Flip Saunders said. "They will play better. But it's a mind-set. And our mind-set has been all year that we play better on the road. We seem to thrive on that type of environment."

Pistons are better than usual in this series

The Pistons are converting 48.6 percent (18-for-37) from three-point range in the series -- 14 percent higher than their regular-season percentage.

''I don't want to say they're playing over their heads because they're a great team, but their numbers are higher than usual,'' Gordon said. ''We have to be more aggressive defensively and make them miss those shots. We can't have them out there getting confidence early.''

Chicago home court factor

Have you forgotten what the Bulls' record was in games played at the United Center? It was 31-10.

No team from the Eastern Conference had a better record at home than the Bulls. No team in the entire NBA other than the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks won more home games than the Bulls.

I did pick Detroit to win this series in six games, true. But I fully expected each team to sweep at home through Game 4, which still could be the case.

By Barry Rozner (Daily Herald Sports Columnist)
With the Pistons playing very hungry, and knowing the sterile United Center offers limited homecourt advantage, it leaves the Bulls with limited traditional options for climbing back into the series.

So it’s time for something radical:

Start 6-foot-9 Tyrus Thomas in place of P.J. Brown, spread the floor, put Ben Gordon and Thomas on the same side, and run the pick-and-roll until the cows break curfew.

Let Gordon fire and have Thomas go to the bucket with a vengeance, instead of sitting back and getting roughed up and pushed around.

Have Thomas drive the lane, dunk, pick up fouls, and introduce mayhem to this series.

Run Luol Deng off double screens on the other side, and spread the Pistons’ defense, creating some isolations, and someone’s got to be open. Otherwise, their help defense will continue to crush the Bulls’ offense.

The Bulls have got to give the Pistons a different look at some point, right, or are they just going to sit back and get waxed?

Skiles said he met individually with every player Tuesday morning to take a measure of their confidence level and attitude heading into the next two home games. He described the players as “upbeat.”

“This is how (the Bulls) grow. You move up and play better talent. Don’t discount (the positive effect of) the Bulls winning that series against Miami. When you are coaching in a game like this, you try to find something you can carry into the next game. Scott Skiles is getting (Tyrus Thomas) a lot of minutes. I think this is a great move by Scott Skiles.

Experts analysis

Former Bulls coach Doug Collins, game analyst for TNT:

“All of these (Detroit) guys are skilled basketball players. They can pass, they can move without the ball.

“This is how (the Bulls) grow. You move up and play better talent. Don’t discount (the positive effect of) the Bulls winning that series against Miami. When you are coaching in a game like this, you try to find something you can carry into the next game. Scott Skiles is getting (Tyrus Thomas) a lot of minutes. I think this is a great move by Scott Skiles.

“I think it would be very difficult, unless something dramatic happens, for Chicago to win four of the next five in this series.”

Charles Barkley, TNT studio commentator:

“The Bulls can’t beat them, they can’t stop Rip Hamilton or Chauncey Billups, but the real problem they have is guarding Chris Webber.

“(Webber) can make the outside shot, so Ben Wallace has to stay close to him.  So when (the Pistons) initiate their offense, it keeps Ben Wallace away from the basket. Wallace is not going to get hustle points, and they can’t match up with Chris Webber and they can’t match up with the two-guards.”

Betonbasket analysis

Playoffs and regular season are different leagues and playoff Pistons are completely different from reg. season Pistons. That's for sure. I see this team playing seriuosly today because they don't want to repeat last year mistake when they were too much confident and relaxed in playoffs. But I still can't outline who are the Bulls? They beat Heat in first round and public really loved them and now they are coming to their home where they were playing very strong this year (31-10). That's the only thing which scares me to pick Pistons today. Pistons defense is stronger over predictable Bulls offense with Deng, Gordon or Hinrich shooting a ball from the long distance. While in defense Bulls have problems because Pistons can stretch their defense and score 3-pointers without big pressure on them. That was a factor not only in this series for Pistons but against Magic they also scored many 3 pointers, so I don't think that Pistons are playing better than they can. They simply started to play at their level in playoffs - that's my point of view on the way Pistons playing right now.

I think that today we will see much more agressive Bulls offense and they will finaly start to score points and will up their shooting percentage which was very low in Detroit (33% comparing to 45.5% in reg. season). This should help to score around 94-98 points and if they will be able to defend against Pistons well they will win this game if no they will lose it by something like 94-98. But if we are talking about spread betting I would choose Detroit handicap because I see only 2 outcomes of this game close Chicago win or Pistons will steal one game from Chicago today. Also don't forget that Detroit Pistons are 21-9 ATS in the last 30 meetings against Chicago Bulls.


Betonbasket prediction: Bulls 96 - 94 Pistons

Pick: Over 184.5 / DET +2.5

 
Utah Jazz vs GS Warriors: Game 2 prediction PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alleks   
Thursday, 10 May 2007

Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors (1-0)

Press clippings:

By Tim Kawakami on ContraCostaTimes.Net:
"Utah coach Jerry Sloan spent Monday morning declaring that his bigger, brawnier team would be cooked if it played at the Warriors' pace, and maybe he was telling the truth."

By Tim Buckley (Deseret Morning News)

The Jazz still didn't know Tuesday if starting shooting guard Derek Fisher would be available for tonight's playoff game against Golden State.

"I'll just wait and see when he gets here," coach Jerry Sloan said.

Fisher has missed two morning shootarounds and Monday's Game 1 of Utah's second-round postseason series due to an undisclosed family matter involving one of his children.

Carlos Boozer ready to rebound against Warriors"Derek is a huge part of our team," teammate Andrei Kirilenko said Tuesday, "but, you know, things happen in the world. ... We understand that."

Besides altering their rotation and working in Brown, Williams suggested, the Jazz didn't change strategy because of Fisher's absence from Monday's 116-112 win.

"We just tried to attack the same way," Williams said. "When a guy goes out for whatever reason — he's injured, personal reasons, whatever — guys have to be ready to step up. And guys were ready (Monday) night."

Jerry Sloan isn't Mr. Transition. But since he took over the Jazz nearly two decades back, he's told his players to look for the break first. There are times during games when he takes on the appearance of a third-base coach waving runners home. After so many defensive rebounds, he flails his arms, urging his players to move the ball up the court.

"If the other team doesn't set up quickly, we're running for a layup," he said. "We'll get the ball up the floor, I've always wanted that. If the layup isn't there, we bring it back out and run the offense, because we haven't had a lot of one-on-one players here."

By Gordon Monson (Tribune Columnist)

I like to get out and run," Deron Williams said on Tuesday, less than 12 hours after he put 31 points and eight assists on the Lamborghinis. "We like to run, but we don't like to take quick shots. We just play basketball. We push the ball, and if we don't have anything good, we pull it back out and run the offense. There's nothing tricky about it, nothing hidden."

Jerry Sloan isn't Mr. Transition. But since he took over the Jazz nearly two decades back, he's told his players to look for the break first. There are times during games when he takes on the appearance of a third-base coach waving runners home. After so many defensive rebounds, he flails his arms, urging his players to move the ball up the court.

"If the other team doesn't set up quickly, we're running for a layup," he said. "We'll get the ball up the floor, I've always wanted that. If the layup isn't there, we bring it back out and run the offense, because we haven't had a lot of one-on-one players here."

Kirilenko also said the Jazz often find themselves in a vast comfort zone against teams - such as Phoenix and Golden State - that run and run and run. Other teams cause them to be anxious and jumpy.

By Charles Barkley (TNT)

"The stuff (the Warriors) employed against (first-round opponent) Dallas they can't do against Utah," analyst Charles Barkley said on-air. "Baron Davis won't be able to bully Deron Williams like he did with (Mavericks) Devin Harris and Jason Terry. ... Utah is a deeper team and I think they have more offensive weapons. ... I think Utah is going to win this series, and as the series progresses their depth and Carlos Boozer are going to wear (Golden State) down."

Added studio partner Kenny Smith: "For Golden State to win, they have to come up with Plan B. Plan A of running them out of the gym, opening the floor and penetrating — that doesn't work against them. I believe Utah is the better team and they will advance, but (the series) will go a long way."

By Tim Roberts (Covers)

Utah’s ability to keep up with the Warriors in the opener seems to have turned a few heads, especially since it was the second-straight head-to-head meeting in which the two teams combined for 228 points.

Sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly, but Jones wonders if it’s not too much of an adjustment.

“There was a 72-point first quarter, but the remaining three quarters averaged 52 points per,” Jones says. “So for the last three quarters of the game, after they’d settled down, it played at the 207-point pace they’d set. (The Game 2 opening total) could be a little bit of an overreaction.”


Betonbasket.com analysis:

Public expect Utah to play lower tempo but have you ever tried to stop a train? The same story here. You simply can't stop Warriors if they don't want to play low tempo game with you. Sure I have read many Sloan quotes about playing slower basketball but let's be honest this Utah is not a Malone & Stockton team anymore. They have many shooters and many defenders in the roster and the most important they have good bench which can outscore Warriors bench. Many punters looks at regular season games which ended with average total of 197 points.. but stop.. with these Warriors roster and healthy Baron Utah played only 2 games so far and average total of those games was 228 points. But that's not because good percentage that's all about tempo.. In first 3 games these teams did 218.5 attacks per game (FG att + FT att /2 + TO) but after trade with Indiana they played 2 games and did 252.5 attacks per game.. Do you feel the difference? Utah is not a transition defence team like Spurs is.. during a season they showed that they can score a lot of points if opponent force them to attack.. and against Warriors they have one advantage...

Utah managed to win playoff game in this tempo because of main basketball rule who wins rebound battle - wins a game. In Game 1 Utah overrevbounded Warriors 54-36 and I doubt that this picture will change today. Utah is stronger phisically and they have more weight, height and defending ability under the basket. I think that Utah have enough power to limit some of the Warriors in the scoring but they have too much offensive talant to start playing with Warriors like the Spurs do.. With Mavs Warriors had matchup advantage but with Jazz they are relying mostly on tempo.. while Utah will rely on tempo, size and home court

Betonbasket.com prediction: Jazz 112 - 107 Warriors

Pick: Over 212.5 / Utah ML

 
NBA Playoffs: Pick for Game 3 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alleks   
Thursday, 26 April 2007

Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons
Orlando lost all 6 games to Detroit Pistons this season. Looking into first 2 games in Detroit I don't see Orlando game plan how they are going to win Detroit Pistons. Maybe reason is that ex-Pistons Hill, Milicic, Arroyo just can't outplay their ex-teammates. Also Orlando can't stop Pistons offense, this season they played 24 quarter and Orlando did not stop Pistons offense under 19 points. Pistons scoring norm againt Magic is around 25.8 points per quarter... More than enough taking into account that Orlando only once managed to score more than 92 points.. Ok Magic playing at home where this season they lost only 16 games and it's of hottest courts in NBA these days.. but what about playoff experience? Magics simply don't have it.. while Pistons are probably most experienced team and in-form team right now on the East...

I think that Orlando home factor is bit overvalued here. Pistons will try to decide game outcome today and they will try to take 3-0 and I would not be suprised to see this series ending in 4 games as most of NBA experts predicts. But I have feeling that Pistons could lose 4th game to end series at home... because it's ticket selling.. long break is not good.. but it's better to relax in 4th game and make it 3-1 than make it 2-1 today and have pressure not to lose in game 4.

Expected score: Orlando 86 - 93 Pistons

Pick: Detroit to win

Utah Jazz - Houston Rockets
In first 2 games we have seen quite fast offensive minded basketball with many pick-and-rolls from both sides. This game styles suits both teams because Utah have no solution for Yao Ming and Houston have very easy and effective offensive schemes with low-post scoring options in Yao Ming face, their "goto" man Tracy McGrady and many guys who can score 3-pointers.. NBA experts who knows each team abilities and advantages a bit better than me predict that Utah Jazz will try to push tempo today even more that they did in first 2 games but now they will play at home where they would not miss so many open shots like they missed in first 2 games. I think this will help them to win this game and score more than 100 points. I expect something around 105-92 today because Utah Jazz can't hold Houston with Yao and T-Mac on court under 90 points. So their only chance to win this game is to score over 100 points and I am pretty sure that at home they will be able to make it.

Expected score: Utah Jazz 105 - 92 Houston Rockets

Pick: Utah -4.5

L.A. Lakers - Phoenix Suns
Looks like Stoudmire was right when said before series that he expect this series to be very quick. Looking into last 2 games game flow Kobe, his Lakers and Phil Jackson simply don't have game plan for this Suns version. Ok they had plan for last-year Suns without Stoudemaier in the roster but now they are looking really bad and looks their form is not so high to matchup with todays Suns. They won first 2 quarters 48-39 while Suns were very nervous but than Suns simply smashed Lakers from the court by winning other 6 quarters with overall score 182-137... Kobe get injured in last game, but expected to play, L.Odom is playing with injury all other Lakers are not showing nothing special.. Sure at home we will see more motivated and angry Lakers but that's not enough playoff-type Suns.

Expected score: Lakers 98 - 108 Suns

Pick: Phoenix Suns -4

 
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